US Tariffs Take a Knock to German Exports: What's Next?
U.S. imports experience significant decline
Call it deja vu all over again, the escalating trade war with the US has hit the German export industry hard in April. Companies shipped goods with the Made-in-Germany label to a total of 131.1 billion euros overseas last month, marking a 1.7% decline from March of this year and 2.1% down compared to April 2025.
The big question on everyone's lips now? What's coming next? The chatter has turned ugly.
American trade disputes have taken a significant toll on German exports to the US, according to preliminary figures from the Federal Statistical Office. Although those exports still dominate the US market in April 2026, they've hit the lowest level since October 2025. Exports to the US fell just short of 13 billion euros, a 6.3% drop compared to April 2025 on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis.
Economic indicators projected a tougher trade policy from US President Donald Trump, so some businesses moved transactions forward. Thereby, according to calculations by the Wiesbaden statisticians, there was a slight 0.2% increase in German exports from January to April.
In April, US President Trump unveiled his mega tariff package. Right now, there's no definitive agreement between the US and the European Union on the level of mutual tariffs. Just recently, the US sparked controversy again, with Trump ordering an increase in tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum into the US from 25% to 50%.
A Uptick in EU Exports
In April, Germany shipped goods worth 72.9 billion euros to EU countries on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis. Compared to March, that's an increase of 0.9%. Exports to third countries dropped by 4.8% to a total of 58.1 billion euros.
Imports surged by 3.9% in comparison to the previous month. Annually, they saw a 3.8% growth. A total of 116.5 billion euros worth of goods entered German borders during April on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis. The trade surplus amounted to 14.6 billion euros on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis.
Tariff Ripples: A Closer Look
The latest tariff tariff hike brings up a series of multifaceted impacts and potential future implications for US-German trade, particularly in the steel and aluminum industry:
Current Impacts
- Double Tariffs: On June 4, 2026, President Donald Trump doubled US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from most countries, including Germany, to 50%. The move targets subsidized metals from China but impacts all major US trade partners, excluding the United Kingdom, per pending conditions[1][3].
- Pinned Industry Costs: The increased tariffs will likely lead to higher costs for US industries using steel and aluminum, such as automotive and construction. This could result in reduced profit margins and potential job losses if costs can’t be passed on to consumers[1][5].
- Countermoves: The EU has proposed countermeasures in response to US tariffs, contemplating additional import duties on US products, including aviation, automobiles, and medical devices, affecting €95 billion in US imports[2].
Potential Future Implications
- Deteriorating Trade Relations: The tariffs could further strain trade relations between the US and Germany/EU, potentially leading to additional trade disputes and retaliatory actions[2].
- Economic Casualties: The tariffs could negatively impact the US economy, with industries heavily dependent on imported steel and aluminum bearing the brunt[1][4].
- Supply Chain Overhauls: The increased costs due to tariffs may alter market dynamics within the steel and aluminum sectors, influencing supply chains and investment decisions[5].
- Global Repercussions: The tariffs could stir up global metal markets, leading to price volatility and supply chain disruptions beyond US-German trade[1][3].
- The ongoing trade dispute between the US and Germany has led to a significant impact on the employment policies within various industries, such as automotive and construction, due to the increased costs associated with the higher tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Germany.
- In the arena of politics and general news, discussions regarding community policy and business strategy are surfacing, with a focus on adapting to the changing economic landscape following the US mega tariff package.
- The finance sector is keeping a close eye on the potential future implications of the US tariffs on steel and aluminum, including deteriorating trade relations, economic casualties, supply chain overhauls, and global repercussions, all of which could lead to volatile market conditions in the industry.