Skyrocketing hazelnut costs following frost damage in key producer Turkey

In April, a cold snap affected a variety of crops in Türkiye, with the central bank warning of a temporary increase in food prices due to the impact of the cold weather. The Agriculture Minister, Ibrahim Yumaklı, described the frost as one of the worst agricultural frosts in the country's history.

The frost has had a significant impact on the world's largest hazelnut producer, Turkey. Approximately 60% of the world's hazelnuts grow on the green mountain slopes along Türkiye's Black Sea coast. The price surge for hazelnuts is expected to hit the world's largest hazelnut buyer, Nutella-maker Ferrero, the hardest, as it is estimated to source about one-third of all hazelnuts globally.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events in Turkey, driven by climate change, is significantly impacting hazelnut production and consequently affecting prices. Rising temperatures, prolonged heatwaves, and irregular precipitation patterns such as droughts, floods, and wildfires are stressing agricultural systems in Turkey's key hazelnut-growing regions, reducing yields and driving up costs.

Experts attribute the April frost to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events caused by climate change. The state grain board in Türkiye recently raised the minimum purchase price for hazelnuts for the 2025-2026 season to TL 195 ($4.80) per kilogram. As of the harvest season, a metric ton of Turkish hazelnuts costs around 9,400 euros ($10,900), an increase of roughly 34% since the start of the year.

The price surge for chocolate products is accompanied by hikes in global prices of other goods, including cocoa and coffee, which are closely being followed by major chocolatiers. Price comparison app smhaggle found that prices for well-known chocolate products in Germany have climbed by 10% to 65% since 2022.

Ferrero denies any supply disruptions but did not comment on prices when asked. The spokesperson for Ritter Sport, a German chocolate company that processes several thousand tons of hazelnuts annually, mostly from Turkey's Black Sea coast and partly from the U.S., stated that the frosts in Turkey and rising prices have had a tangible impact on the company.

Major global chocolatiers such as Ferrero source their nuts from the region along Türkiye's Black Sea coast. Ferrero sources hazelnuts not only from Turkey but also from Italy, Chile, and the U.S., ensuring supply security. However, the price increases are expected to strain the industry, with the spokesperson for Ritter Sport indicating that the strain from the price hikes is not expected to ease up in the future.

The production of cocoa was particularly at risk last year as drought hit major producers in West Africa. The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in Turkey—comprising heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires—are undermining hazelnut production through physical damage to crops and stress on growing conditions. This scarcity translates into rising hazelnut prices both domestically and internationally.

Turkey, being the world's largest hazelnut producer, plays a crucial role in global supply, so changes in its production significantly affect international markets. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) estimated that fruit, beverage, and spice crop production will be 21.4 million tons in 2025, with a 24.4% decrease compared to the previous year.

In summary, the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in Turkey—comprising heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires—are undermining hazelnut production through physical damage to crops and stress on growing conditions. This scarcity translates into rising hazelnut prices both domestically and internationally. The price surge for chocolate products is accompanied by hikes in global prices of other goods, including cocoa and coffee, which are closely being followed by major chocolatiers.

The frost that affected crops in Türkiye in April, one of the worst agricultural frosts in the country's history, has had a significant impact on the world's largest hazelnut producer.
Approximately 60% of the world's hazelnuts grow on the green mountain slopes along Türkiye's Black Sea coast, making Turkey a crucial player in global supply.
The price surge for hazelnuts is expected to hit the world's largest hazelnut buyer, Nutella-maker Ferrero, the hardest, as it is estimated to source about one-third of all hazelnuts globally.
Rising temperatures, prolonged heatwaves, and irregular precipitation patterns such as droughts, floods, and wildfires are stressing agricultural systems in Turkey's key hazelnut-growing regions, reducing yields and driving up costs.
Experts attribute the April frost to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events caused by climate change, which is also affecting the production of other goods, including cocoa and coffee.
The production of cocoa was particularly at risk last year as drought hit major producers in West Africa, showing how climate change can have a global impact on the economy, business, and lifestyle, affecting food-and-drink, environmental-science, finance, industry, culture, and climate-change.