Russia boosted coal shipments to China during May
Russian Coal Exports Show Mixed Results in 2025
Russian coal exports have experienced a mix of growth and decline in 2025, with China, a major importer, seeing a significant decrease in imports.
May shipments of coal to Poland showed a significant increase, reaching 104,000 tons compared to 10,950 tons in April and 2,470 tons in May last year. Exports to Turkey and South Korea have also increased, with a 10% rise in exports to Turkey and a 2.1 times increase in exports to South Korea in a year-on-year comparison. However, supplies to both countries decreased compared to April.
Despite this growth, Russia's coal exports to China have seen a notable decrease of 19.7% in the first half of 2025. This decline occurred against the backdrop of an oversupply and a decrease in imports by key consumers. According to NEFT Research, the decrease in Chinese imports is due to Beijing’s energy policy shifts and increased domestic coal production.
China remains a major importer of Russian fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and gas. However, the impact on the domestic Russian coal market includes a continued emphasis on exports, as Russia seeks alternative markets amid China's declining imports. Strong global coal production and demand plateau conditions, especially from countries like India and parts of the U.S., help maintain Russia's coal export volumes.
The key risks for future Russian coal exports include China's structural energy transition, geopolitical tensions, and global energy market shifts toward decarbonization. In summary, while Russian coal exports have historically been strong to China, the trend in 2025 shows a notable decrease due to Beijing’s energy policy shifts and geopolitical issues. Russia is partially offsetting this by expanding exports elsewhere, but risks remain significant given China's declining thermal coal imports and global movement away from coal reliance.
In South Korea, concerns about sanctions against Russian coal seem to have eased, and prices for high-calorie coal have been rising due to high demand from municipal enterprises and new tenders. Grachev noted a decreasing interest in long-term contracts for Chinese coal and an increasing interest in purchases at lower market prices. There are rumors of possible controls on import volumes being introduced in China, according to Grachev.
Meanwhile, coal supplies to India have increased by 19% month-on-month and two times year-on-year, to 1.36 million tons. Coal production in China decreased by 2% year-on-year in April and continued to decline in May due to losses. A source in the coal industry reported that coal purchases for power stations have increased in China, and coal stocks in Chinese ports have been decreasing for three weeks in a row.
The Director of CPI, Yevgeny Grachev, stated that Russian coal is cheaper than domestic coal in China, making it attractive to importers. However, Grachev also warned of potential risks to future export supplies to China due to the increasing interest in purchasing cheaper coal.
References:
- NEFT Research (2025). Russian Coal Exports to China Decline in 2025. [Online] Available at: https://www.neftresearch.com/news/russian-coal-exports-to-china-decline-in-2025
- Reuters (2025). China Remains Major Importer of Russian Fossil Fuels. [Online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-remains-major-importer-russian-fossil-fuels-2025-06-01/
- TASS (2025). Russian Coal Exports to Poland Increase in May. [Online] Available at: https://tass.com/economy/1311504
- S&P Global (2025). Global Coal Production and Demand Remain Stable. [Online] Available at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-research/global-coal-production-and-demand-remain-stable-57645414
- Bloomberg (2025). Indian Coal Imports Increase in May. [Online] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/indian-coal-imports-increase-in-may-as-demand-for-power-grows
- With the decrease in Chinese imports, Russia is seeking alternative markets for its coal, particularly in industries like South Korea and India that have shown increasing demands for fossil fuels, such as oil, gas, and coal.
- Amidst the declining imports from China, the Russian oil-and-gas business and finance sectors are closely monitoring the potential impacts of China's energy policy shifts and global energy market shifts toward decarbonization on the export of coal and other fossil fuels.
- Despite the growth in exports to Poland, Turkey, and South Korea, the Russian coal industry remains dependent on stable relationships with major importers like China, as the energy sector continues to navigate complex issues such as oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and global efforts towards decarbonization.
