Rising Demand for Battery-Electric Heavy Trucks in China Reaches Almost a Quarter of Market Share
In the first half of 2025, the sales of battery electric heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) in China surged significantly, marking a significant shift in the country's transportation sector. According to data from Commercial Vehicle World and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), sales of new energy HDVs, including battery electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell models, reached a monthly record of over 18,000 units in June 2025[1][3].
This rapid increase in electric HDV sales has impacted demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks negatively. In 2024, LNG trucks accounted for a substantial 30% market share, but this figure dropped to 26% in the first half of 2025[1][3]. Christopher Doleman, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas expert for the IEEFA, attributes this trend to fleet operators actively choosing electric alternatives due to the lower cost of ownership[1].
The growth in electric HDVs signifies a declining long-term outlook for LNG demand in China's transportation sector, undermining expectations by LNG proponents who saw trucking as a major growth driver for LNG globally[1][2][3]. Unlike the previous LNG trucking boom, which reduced diesel consumption by millions of tons in 2024 and 2025, the electrification surge may stall further expansion of LNG trucks and thus diminish LNG fuel demand growth from transportation[1][2][3].
In May, CATL, one of the world's largest battery manufacturers, launched a new standardised battery pack for battery-swap enabled heavy-duty electric trucks[2]. The company is planning to deploy 300 battery swap stations for heavy-duty trucks by year's end, as part of a larger effort to build a nationwide network of swapping stations[2]. CATL claims that battery swap-enabled trucks reduce operational costs by RMB 60,000 ($A12,844) per 100,000 kilometres compared to traditional fuel-powered heavy trucks, a cost advantage RMB 20,000 ($A4,300) greater than that provided by LNG trucks[2].
The network, called "Eight Horizontal and Ten Vertical", would cover 150,000 kilometres of expressways and trunk roads across China[2]. If successful, this could further accelerate electric HDV adoption, potentially increasing market share to 50-80% by 2028, deepening the impact on LNG demand[1].
Meanwhile, China's higher purchase subsidies for electric models could also encourage fleet operators to opt for electric purchases. The lower fuel costs and higher fuel economy of battery-electric drives compared to internal combustion engines are contributing factors to the lower total cost of ownership of electric heavy-duty trucks in China[1].
In summary:
| Aspect | 2024 | First Half 2025 | Implications | |------------------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | Battery Electric HDV Market Share | ~8.6% | ~22% | Strong surge in electric HDV adoption | | LNG Heavy Truck Market Share | ~30% | ~26% | Declining share as electric alternatives gain | | Diesel-LNG Price Differential | Larger (strong LNG advantage) | Reduced by two-thirds | LNG less economically attractive vs electric | | Diesel Consumption Impact | LNG trucks displaced 25 million tons diesel in 2024 | LNG trucks’ slower growth reduces diesel displacement | Potential slowing LNG demand growth in trucking |
This evidence highlights a strategic shift in China’s heavy-duty trucking sector toward battery electric vehicles, accelerating decarbonization but reducing LNG fuel demand in transportation[1][3][4].
References: [1] "China's Electric Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Poised for Rapid Growth", Renew Economy, 1st July 2025, https://reneweconomy.com.au/chinas-electric-heavy-duty-vehicle-market-poised-for-rapid-growth-72884/ [2] "CATL unveils new standardised battery pack for heavy-duty electric trucks", South China Morning Post, 1st May 2025, https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3124094/catl-unveils-new-standardised-battery-pack-heavy-duty-electric [3] "China's Electric Truck Boom Threatens LNG Demand", The Driven, 1st July 2025, https://thedriven.io/2025/07/01/chinas-electric-truck-boom-threatens-lng-demand/ [4] "China's Electric Truck Boom: Implications for LNG Demand", IEEFA, 1st June 2025, https://ieefa.org/chinas-electric-truck-boom-implications-for-lng-demand/
- The surge in electric heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sales in China's transportation sector, particularly battery electric models, indicates a growing interest in renewable-energy solutions in the industry.
- The declining market share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks and the rise of electric alternatives suggest a shift in financing, as fleet operators turn to the lower cost of ownership provided by renewable-energy technology.
- The adoption of data-and-cloud-computing technologies, such as battery-swap stations, is enabling the growth of renewable-energy in the transportation sector, potentially leading to an increase in market share for battery electric HDVs by 2028.
