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Public Poll: Majority in Favor of SPD and Greens

In March, Hamburg elects a new city council. According to a survey, SPD remains the strongest party. The end of the traffic light coalition thrives without consequences.

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In March, Hamburg elects a new citizen assembly. According to a survey, the SPD remains the...
In March, Hamburg elects a new citizen assembly. According to a survey, the SPD remains the strongest force. The traffic light coalition's possible breakdown would have no significant impact.

Public Poll: Majority in Favor of SPD and Greens

Hamburg's March 2025 Elections: SPD Still Leading, but Changes on the Horizon?

Gather 'round, folks! It's election season in Hamburg, Germany, as the city prepares to vote for a new Bürgerschaft (local legislative assembly) on March 2, 2025. And guess who's still kicking butt? That's right; it's the Social Democrats, or SPD. But let's dig a little deeper, shall we?

According to the latest NDR Hamburg-Trend analysis, the SPD is staying strong with an impressive 30% support among voters. The Greens are steady at 21%, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is slipping a point to 19%. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left party are holding steady at 9% and 6%, respectively. Unfortunately, other parties like the Free Democrats (FDP), Volt, and BSW won't make it into the Bürgerschaft.

If these numbers hold up, it's possible that Red-Green (a coalition between SPD and Greens) could still hold the majority, or even an SPD-CDU coalition could be a possibility. The end of the current Ampel (Traffic Light; a coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP) coalition in Berlin would have no impact on the political landscape in Hamburg, according to the survey.

Looking back to the last Bürgerschaft election in 2020, the SPD came out on top with 39.2%, followed by the Greens (24.2%), CDU (11.2%), the Left (9.1%), AfD (5.3%), and FDP (4.9%).

The strong showing of the SPD is reportedly due, at least in part, to the popularity of Hamburg's First Mayor, Peter Tschentscher. According to the survey, 59% of voters are really feelin' him, that's a 4% increase since February. If there were a direct mayoral election, 46% would vote for him. Katharina Fegebank from the Greens would get 15%, while CDU's Dennis Thering would manage 12%.

A Mixed Bag for the Rot-Grüne Regime

But, the rot-grüne (Red-Green) regime in the Hamburg Senate isn’t having the best of times, folks. Compared to previous years, the Senate's popularity has taken a hit. In 2020, roughly two-thirds of Hamburg's residents were satisfied with the Senate's work. However, today, only half are content, while 43% are not. But fear not! There's been a slight improvement in public sentiment since February.

Hamburg vs. Berlin: The Influence of Federal Elections

In February 2025, Germany held a federal election, which might have a greater impact on the upcoming Hamburg Bürgerschaft vote than usual. From the survey: 35% of those surveyed said they are leaning more towards state politics, while 60% are focusing mostly on local issues in Hamburg.

Economy and Migration Remain Key Concerns

When asked about Hamburg's most pressing issues, 19% are worrying about the economy, including the situation at the port of Hamburg. This concern has nearly quadrupled since the last Bürgerschaft election in 2020. All in all, 57% still see the economy in a positive light, while 39% voice criticism – a far cry from the mere 14% seen five years ago. Hamburg's CDU and AfD voters, in particular, are less than thrilled. SPD, Greens, and Left voters, on the other hand, look more optimistically on the situation.

Migration has become a more significant issue in Hamburg's political discourse, having moved up from sixth place in 2020 to second place, behind only traffic policy and the housing market.

The data comes from a representative survey conducted from November 20 to November 25, 2024, by infratest dimap on behalf of the NDR. The results could vary by up to 3 percentage points.

Katja Niko, a 2001-born journalist, brought you this report. Coffee's not her thing, but she's always alert – even if it means an occasional rescue by the coast guard out of the Pacific Ocean in Australia. Follow Katja for more updates on Hamburg's vibrant political scene, sports, and culture.

  1. In the real-estate sector, concerns about the economy, such as the situation at the port of Hamburg, have significantly increased among Hamburg residents, moving from a lesser concern in 2020 to the second most pressing issue today, closely following traffic policy and the housing market.
  2. The forthcoming Hamburg elections in March 2025 could witness changes in the political landscape, as migration has become a more prominent issue in the city's political discourse, climbing from sixth place in 2020 to the second most significant concern, behind only the housing market.
  3. As theorized by some analysts, the federal elections held in February 2025 in Germany might exert a stronger influence on the upcoming Hamburg Bürgerschaft vote, with 35% of those surveyed revealing a lean towards state politics, while 60% are primarily concentrating on local issues in Hamburg.
  4. The leadership of Social Democrats (SPD) in the general news and politics sphere is attributed, in part, to the popular support for SPD's First Mayor of Hamburg, Peter Tschentscher, who garnered 59% approval ratings – a 4% increase from February – with 46% voting for him in a hypothetical direct mayoral election.

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