Online tool available for determining potential subsidence risk in specific postcodes
A New Tool to Help Homeowners Navigate Subsidence Risks in the UK
In the face of climate-induced extreme heat and low rainfall, a new tool has been launched to help UK homeowners understand and manage the risk of subsidence. The free postcode-based subsidence risk tool, developed by engineering firm Geobear, provides a preliminary assessment of the subsidence exposure in different areas across the country.
The tool utilises three core data sets: national soil texture mapping, a database of over 20,000 historical subsidence cases, and user input on nearby tree presence. By entering a postcode, users receive a general risk classification, reflecting regional soil conditions and documented subsidence events. This information can help identify areas with a higher vulnerability, such as parts of London, Surrey, Hertfordshire, and Leicestershire, which have highly shrinkable clay and a higher incidence of subsidence cases.
Subsidence occurs when soil beneath a property loses moisture and contracts, often affecting homes built on clay. Shifting soil can cause structures to shift unevenly, resulting in cracking walls, misaligned doors, and in severe cases, significant structural instability. Repairs for subsidence can range from £10,000 to £50,000, and claims can take months to investigate and resolve.
Given that 2025 is projected as an extremely dry and hot year, the postcode risk insight provided by Geobear's tool is timely. Subsidence claims have historically spiked after hot, dry periods, and insurers report early signs of increased claims this year, particularly in clay-heavy regions.
Homeowners can use this tool as a starting point for further investigation, especially for those planning renovations, applying for insurance, or considering a home purchase in vulnerable areas. It is also crucial to be aware that once a home has had confirmed subsidence, the history usually must be disclosed during future sales.
The Met Office has reported conditions across much of the UK this year that are similar to those seen in 2022, a "surge year" for subsidence cases, with more than 23,000 valid claims submitted and total costs to insurers estimated at £219 million. According to the Association of British Insurers (ABI), the increased ground movement in certain areas is due to growing demand for localised risk data.
In high-risk areas, surveyors and property lawyers are advising buyers to request soil type and condition reports or specialist structural assessments. By taking these precautions, homeowners can make informed choices and take early preventative action against the rising subsidence risk linked to climate and soil conditions in 2025.
[1] Geobear. (2023). Geobear launches free postcode-based subsidence risk tool. [online] Available at: https://www.geobear.co.uk/news/geobear-launches-free-postcode-based-subsidence-risk-tool/ [Accessed 20 April 2023].
[2] Association of British Insurers. (2023). ABI warns of increased subsidence risk due to climate change. [online] Available at: https://www.abi.org.uk/news/abi-warns-of-increased-subsidence-risk-due-to-climate-change/ [Accessed 20 April 2023].
- The new subsidence risk tool developed by Geobear uses environmental-science data to help UK homeowners identify high-risk areas for subsidence, such as London, Surrey, Hertfordshire, and Leicestershire.
- Utilizing soil texture mapping data, a database of past subsidence cases, and user input on nearby tree presence, the tool provides a preliminary assessment of subsidence exposure in various regions across the country.
- Shifting soil due to climate-change-induced conditions like extreme heat and low rainfall can cause costly damages to homes, including cracking walls, misaligned doors, and significant structural instability.
- Given the potential financial impact, understanding the subsidence risks in your area is important for homeowners, especially those planning renovations, applying for insurance, or considering a home purchase.
- In high-risk areas, ahead of the projected extremely dry and hot year of 2025, surveyors and property lawyers recommend requesting soil type and condition reports or specialist structural assessments.
- By taking early precautions and being aware of the history of subsidence in a home, homeowners can make informed choices and invest in preventative actions to combat the rising subsidence risk related to climate and soil conditions.
- Insurers’ reports suggest that the increased ground movement in certain areas is connected to growing demand for localized risk data, and the housing-market could potentially be affected by the growing awareness of these risks.
