Online retailers in Romania express concern over revenue loss due to sales on non-EU platforms, potentially stealing tax revenue.
The Romanian Association of Online Stores (ARMO) and independent analyst Iancu Guda have published an impact analysis that highlights the potential tax losses for the country due to the continued expansion of non-EU e-commerce platforms.
According to the study, approximately 78 million parcels with a value under EUR 150 are expected to enter Romania in 2025 from non-EU platforms, with an average value of EUR 50 per parcel. If this scenario occurs, the annual commercial value of direct imports through these platforms would be equivalent to approximately 2.5 times the current value of the Romanian e-commerce market.
In the same scenario, the commercial value of direct imports through these platforms would be larger than the combined revenues of the top 10 retailers in Romania. This value would represent about 28.8% of the local retail market, compared to the estimated 14.4% for the end of 2025.
The impact analysis also suggests that physical stores in established categories may lose a significant portion of their traffic, which could have severe effects on investments, employment, and contributions to the public budget.
Iancu Guda, as reported by Cursdeguvernare.ro, stated that these tax losses are enormous. Cristi Movila, president of ARMO, agreed, stating that the impact analysis highlights the size of the imbalance between local retailers and non-EU platforms, and that the losses for the public budget in this context are significant.
The study does not account for any potential changes in consumer behavior or market conditions that could affect the growth of non-EU e-commerce platforms. It also does not take into account any potential countermeasures by local retailers to compete with the growth of these platforms. Furthermore, the study does not consider the potential tax revenue that could be generated if customs duties were applied to the parcels in question.
In a scenario where the volumes or value of ordered packages double from those in 2025, the annual commercial value of direct imports through platforms such as Temu, AliExpress, Shein, or Trendyol could reach RON 39.78 billion (approximately EUR 7.8 billion). This equates to about four parcels from platforms like Temu or Trendyol for each Romanian, regardless of age or residence.
The imbalance between local retailers and non-EU platforms is not just about competitiveness, but also about significant losses for the public budget in an already complicated fiscal and economic context. The study predicts that approximately EUR 2.12 billion per year in tax losses could be incurred by 2027 from non-EU e-commerce platforms selling directly to consumers in Romania.
In this economic context, the growing revenue from non-EU e-commerce platforms could surpass the combined financial earnings of the top retailers in Romania, potentially reaching up to 28.8% of the local retail market. Moreover, if the value or volume of packages from platforms like Temu, AliExpress, Shein, or Trendyol doubles from 2025 levels, the annual finance-related taxes lost could exceed EUR 2.12 billion by 2027, indicating a notable impact on the Romanian industry and public budget.
