Nutella's Potential Price Hike Due to Hazelnut Crisis: Ferrero, Nudossi, and Others Disclose Their Responses
In the heart of spring 2025, an unprecedented frost swept across Turkey, the world's largest hazelnut producer, causing a significant disruption in the global supply of this nutrient-rich ingredient.
Turkey, responsible for about two-thirds of the world's hazelnut output, saw a sharp reduction in yields due to the frost. The forecasted Turkish harvest plummeted from 717,000 tons in 2024 to around 453,000 tons in 2025—a 37% decline. This frost, attributed to climate change and its increase in extreme weather events, resulted in the loss of approximately 167,000 tons of hazelnuts, compared to initial fears of nearly 250,000 tons.
The depletion of Turkey's reserves from the 2022 crop, about 150,000 tons, has left a significant gap in the market. This supply shock has caused wholesale hazelnut prices to soar by approximately 34-40% since early 2025, with prices reaching around €9,400 ($10,900) per metric ton.
The price increase is expected to contribute to higher prices for chocolates and related foods globally. A Ritter Sport full nut bar, for instance, now costs 2.29 euros instead of 1.39 euros—an increase of 65 percent. Similarly, the price of Nutella has increased by 27 percent since 2022, and Zentis' nut spread is 37 percent more expensive than it was about three years ago.
Efforts to mitigate supply risk include buyers seeking hazelnuts from smaller producers like Chile, Georgia, and the U.S., but these alternatives have limited output and different flavor profiles. Moreover, hazelnut trees require 5-7 years to mature, meaning quick expansion of production elsewhere is not feasible.
Some companies, such as Ferrero, are already expanding their operations, with hazelnut farms in Chile. Italy and the USA could become additional supply countries in the future. Ritter Sport, for example, is investing in hazelnut cultivation areas in France, but the first harvests are not expected for another 6-8 years.
In the meantime, the hazelnut shortage is expected to impact the pricing and availability of various products. The cocoa price has temporarily tripled since 2024, according to "Handelsblatt", as both cocoa and hazelnuts are affected by climateflation, leading to price increases in supermarkets.
In summary, the extreme April frost linked to climate change has significantly reduced Turkey’s hazelnut harvest in 2025, driving global supply shortages and a sharp price increase. This is exerting upward pressure on the prices of hazelnut-containing food products such as chocolates worldwide.
- The unexpected frost in Turkey, attributed to climate change and its impact on extreme weather events, has disrupted the global supply of hazelnuts, a vital ingredient in environmental-science like food-and-drink and business sectors.
- The sharp decrease in Turkey's hazelnut output has resulted in a significant rise in wholesale prices, affecting the finance sector as well, with prices reaching up to €9,400 ($10,900) per metric ton, a 34-40% increase since early 2025.
- The price hike in hazelnuts has led to an increase in the cost of various lifestyle products, such as chocolates and nut spreads, with prices of some products skyrocketing by as much as 65% and 37%, respectively.
- In response to the supply shock, businesses are exploring alternatives like smaller producers and expanding their operations in countries like Chile, Italy, and the USA, but the delay in maturation and limited output of these alternatives pose challenges to quickly meeting the increased demand.
