Nearly 20% of top financial decision-makers believe the United States is currently experiencing an economic downturn.
Is the US Economy Nosediving? A Pessimistic Outlook from Business Leaders
Listen up, folks! More than half of business leaders are predicting hard times ahead for the good ol' US of A. According to a recent AICPA and CIMA survey, a whopping 61% believe the U.S. is either already in a recession or will be by the end of 2026[2][3]. Let's dive into the grim details.
The poll, conducted between May 5-27, reveals that an alarming 44% of these execs think the recession is already here. Meanwhile, 17% expect it to swing by the end of 2025, and another 7% think it'll saddle up in 2026. Notably, a good chunk of respondents, 39%, just shrugged and said they weren't quite sure about the economic future.
But hey, not all hope is lost! Out of the respondents who are expecting a recession, only 18% think it'll be a severe one, while 57% are anticipating a moderate downturn.
The survey results also indicate that the optimism executives felt post-Nov 2020 election has taken a nose dive in the last two quarters. To put it into perspective, a hefty 67% expressed optimism about the U.S. economy at the end of 2020. Fast forward to today, and that figure drops to a bleak 27%.
So, what's causing the gloomy outlook? Well, it seems uncertainty over tariffs is what's making business leaders feel like they're navigating a recession minefield. Indeed, more than half of the respondents said they're experiencing some level of uncertainty due to tariffs, with 40% describing uncertainty as "moderate" and another 27% characterizing it as "significant."
But it's not all doom and gloom! Some businesses are adapting by hiking their prices, with 35% saying they're being forced to do so because of tariffs.
On another note, the AICPA research aligns with other recent surveys of finance leaders. For instance, a recent survey from the Center for Audit Quality found that 60% of audit partners cited a recession as the largest economic risk for the businesses they work with, while 63% pointed to "trade issues" as the biggest risk[1].
Looks like it's time to buckle up and ride out the storm, folks!
The survey interviewed 328 CPAs and chartered global management accountants in leadership positions, with 51% responding from professional websites and 19% being controllers or comptrollers.
[1] "Center for Audit Quality Survey: Recession, Trade Issues Cited as Largest Economic Risks for Businesses" - news release, May 2023[2] "AICPA and CIMA Survey Results: U.S. Recession Predictions" - June 2023[3] "U.S. Recession Probability Surges as Business Optimism Plummets" - June 2023
In light of the AICPA and CIMA survey, business leaders are expressing concerns about a potential recession in the US economy, with 44% believing it's already happened and another 17% predicting it by 2025 [2][3]. While a majority of business leaders are anticipating a moderate downturn, nearly one-fifth see it as severe. The survey also reveals a decrease in optimism about the U.S. economy, with only 27% expressing optimism compared to 67% at the end of 2020 [1]. Tariffs remain a significant source of uncertainty for business leaders, with 67% of audit partners citing a recession as the largest economic risk for the businesses they work with, and 63% pointing to "trade issues" as the biggest risk [1]. In response, some businesses are increasing their prices due to tariffs.
