Kazakhstan's Oil Industry Pumps $7 Billion into National Treasury by 2024
The Kazakhstan National Fund, a vital component of the country's economic structure, underwent significant changes in 2024. According to reports by The Astana Times, the National Bank of Kazakhstan shifted from a conservative to a more balanced asset allocation strategy in this year.
Oil Sector Contributions Decline but Remain High
The contributions from the oil sector to the National Fund experienced a significant change from 2023 to 2024, with a 16% drop in 2024 compared to the previous year. Despite this decline, the Fund still received a substantial amount of 3.8 trillion tenge (approximately $7 billion) from the oil sector in 2024.
Additionally, oil exports from Kazakhstan decreased by 1.3 million tons in 2024. However, the exact reasons for this decrease were not specified in the report.
Formation of Alternative Instruments and Asset Allocation Strategy
In response to the changing market conditions, the National Fund introduced a portfolio of alternative instruments in 2023. This move was aimed at enhancing the Fund's resilience to external market volatility.
The shift in asset allocation strategy also increased the share of high-yield instruments from 20% to 40% in the national fund's foreign currency portfolio. This change was primarily responsible for the growth in returns in the foreign currency portfolio, with an investment return of 7.59% in 2024, totalling $4.6 billion.
Future Outlook
Fitch Ratings' outlook from mid-2025 notes that Kazakhstan’s National Fund Assets are expected to remain broadly stable around USD 93 billion (31% of GDP), suggesting a relatively steady asset base and potentially conservative management of investment risk.
While detailed data specific to the Kazakhstan National Fund's investment returns and asset allocation for this period is not readily available, broader sovereign wealth fund trends, as reflected in the Global SWF 2025 report, show an increasing emphasis globally on diversifying asset allocation by increasing exposure to private markets such as private equity, infrastructure, and credit to achieve better inflation cover and risk-adjusted returns. They also emphasize agile management of asset mix to maintain stable returns amid changing market conditions.
In summary, the Kazakhstan National Fund experienced a decline in oil contributions and a shift in asset allocation strategy in 2024. Despite these changes, the Fund remains stable, with a total asset value of 34 trillion tenge (US$64 billion) at the end of the reporting period. The introduction of alternative instruments and the increased share of high-yield instruments in the foreign currency portfolio have strengthened the Fund's resilience and investment efficiency.
[1] The Astana Times. (2024). Report on the formation and use of the national fund's resources for 2024. [2] Kazakhstan Ministry of Finance. (2024). National Fund contributions and asset allocation data for 2024. [3] Fitch Ratings. (2025). Kazakhstan’s National Fund Assets Outlook. [4] Global SWF. (2025). Global Sovereign Wealth Fund Trends 2025.
- Amid the decline in contributions from the oil sector, the National Fund fortified its resilience by introducing a portfolio of alternative instruments and increasing the share of high-yield assets in its foreign currency portfolio.
- The energy sector's financial contributions to the Kazakhstan National Fund decreased, yet the Fund continued to invest in the industry, particularly in private markets like private equity, infrastructure, and credit to capitalize on better inflation cover and risk-adjusted returns.
