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Is it foreseeable that Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) based on XRP will receive approval in the year 2025?

Pending at the SEC: Over a dozen XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) proposals, approximately 10 being distinct, are currently under consideration. Meanwhile, the Polymarket platform entertains the prospect of an XRP ETF.

XRP ETF proposals are under review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but on the...
XRP ETF proposals are under review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but on the Polymarket platform, the XRP ETF status is...

Is it foreseeable that Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) based on XRP will receive approval in the year 2025?

In the realm of crypto, the SEC's review of XRP ETF proposals is a hot topic, and the odds on Polymarket have seen quite the rollercoaster ride. John Squire, a vocal XRP supporter, recently reported a staggering 98% likelihood of Ripple ETF approval. Just a few weeks ago, these odds hovered below 70%, only to rebound to the 80% range.

Initially, the odds peaked at 88% during a press conference, though they've since plummeted from the year's average. The reason? The SEC has yet to provide a clear signal of progress. Yet, the significance of Polymarket's odds lies in its historical accuracy, with analysts estimating the platform's prediction accuracy at a remarkable 90% by 2025.

The Surge: Deciphering the Causes

The sudden leap from 80% to nearly 100% wasn't just serendipity. It was driven by the SEC's approval of the NASDAQ Crypto Industry Index, which encompasses XRP, ADA, SOL, and XLM. Crypto experts attribute this development to the high liquidity and reliable pricing of these assets, thus addressing one of the significant obstacles to spot ETF approval: price manipulation.

Interestingly, the ETF approval odds for ADA and SOL, part of the same index, didn't escalate as dramatically. Instead, ADA's approval odds dipped from 70% to 42%, while SOL currently lingers at 79%.

The NASDAQ Crypto Industry Index: A Step Forward for Crypto ETFs

The approval of the NASDAQ Crypto Industry Index, including XRP, indicates a significant stride for crypto ETFs. This move has boosted expectations for XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025. However, it's crucial to exercise caution amidst the SEC's slow decision-making process, as the lack of progress has led to a decline in the short-term odds.

Institutional interest in XRP, optimism about a changing regulatory landscape, Ripple's legal victories, and the success of XRP futures products are the main drivers behind the optimism surrounding an XRP ETF approval[3][4]. With multiple XRP ETF applications from companies like Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton, the likelihood of approval before the end of 2025 remains high[5].

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Sources: 1. Polymarket 2. Coindesk 3. Bloomberg 4. Forbes 5. CoinDesk

  1. The approval of the NASDAQ Crypto Industry Index, which includes XRP, has bolstered the hopes for XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025, as this move signifies a significant advancement for crypto ETFs.
  2. With multiple XRP ETF applications from firms like Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton, investing in XRP ETFs could provide a unique opportunity for those interested in the crypto market, given the high likelihood of approval before the end of 2025.

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