HSBC predicted to maintain the highest return among banks in Greater China, according to JPMorgan's financial analysts' projections
HSBC, the 160-year-old bank with roots in Hong Kong and Shanghai, has received a positive outlook from JPMorgan analysts. The prediction suggests that HSBC's shares may reach HKD 122 by the end of 2026, marking a significant increase from its current trading price.
The team of analysts at JPMorgan who made these predictions includes Katherine Lei, Lincoln Yu, Chen Haomin, Kian Abouhossein, Sheel Shah, and Benkat Madasu. They have also predicted that HSBC will return between 9% and 11% to shareholders this year.
JPMorgan's analysis reflects an upward revision to earnings forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 4%, 3%, and 3%, respectively. This price target suggests a positive view but is specifically for the near-term, not directly specifying the end of 2026 price. However, it implies confidence in earnings growth over this period.
HSBC recently announced a share buyback program of up to $3 billion alongside a dividend yield forecast of about 5.2% for the full year, based on previous dividend payments and yield estimates from 2025 earnings expectations. JPMorgan’s raised earnings estimates indirectly support a return through both dividends and potential capital appreciation.
While other analysts have a more modest growth expected within a year, HSBC's predicted return is the highest among banks in the region, according to JPMorgan analysts. A median analyst 12-month price target is approximately GBP 962.79 pence (~HKD 95-100 range) with a modest estimated price increase (~2.5%) from current levels.
Despite the positive outlook, any further impairment on Bocom below US$14 billion is expected to have a muted impact on HSBC's capital and share buy-backs. HSBC retains a capital buffer of US$14 billion in outstanding threshold deductions.
On Wednesday, HSBC's Hong Kong-listed shares closed 0.7% higher at HKD 97. The bank announced a second-quarter dividend of 10 US cents per share.
JPMorgan raised its price target for HSBC's shares from HKD 118 on August 1, up from a previous revision of July 22. This recent raise further emphasizes the optimistic medium-term outlook for HSBC.
Based on JPMorgan's outlook, HSBC is projected to return between 9% and 11% to its shareholders this year, primarily through a combination of dividends and potential investing opportunities. The bank's analysts have also predicted a significant increase in HSBC's shares, with a price target of HKD 122 by the end of 2026, following an upward revision of earnings forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 4%, 3%, and 3%.
