Global Economy Braces for US Labour Market Slowdown, Inflation Rebound, and Gold Surge
The global economy is facing a mix of challenges, with realtors' credit absorption and labour market weakness in the US making headlines. Meanwhile, inflation and gold prices are showing signs of change.
In the US, the labour market is slowing down. Only 22,000 new jobs were created in the latest payroll data, a significant drop from the average of 20,000 to 30,000 jobs per month. This trend, coupled with an increasing unemployment rate of around 0.1 percentage point per month, is causing concern. The labour force participation rate is also declining, partly due to stricter immigration policies.
Inflation, after retreating from its peaks, is showing signs of a modest rebound. Market analysts like Lukman Otunuga of Exness Investment Bank attribute this to tariff-related effects. Meanwhile, stagflation fears are rising, fueled by sluggish growth and persistent inflation.
Realtors continue to be a significant absorber of credit, with outstanding loans to the property sector accounting for about 24-25% of total credit. In Vietnam, despite the government's ambitious GDP growth targets and supportive policies, real estate prices are unlikely to cool significantly.
Gold prices are on the rise, with Vietnamese gold prices at about $5,200 per tael and international bullion briefly approaching $3,800 per ounce. Major financial institutions forecast gold could breach the $4,000 threshold by mid-2026 if current risks persist.
The US labour market slowdown and realtors' credit absorption are key economic concerns. Inflation's modest rebound and stagflation fears add to the complexity. Gold prices are surging, with forecasts suggesting a potential breach of the $4,000 threshold by mid-2026.
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