Forecast for Crude Oil Prices: August 2025 to July 2026
News Article: Oil Prices Forecast to Remain Relatively Stable in 2025 and 2026
According to a consensus of reputable institutional forecasts, Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline from around $71 per barrel in mid-2025 to an average near $58 per barrel in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025), dropping further to around $50-$51 per barrel by mid-2026. WTI crude oil prices, meanwhile, are forecasted to follow a similar trend, with prices expected to average in the low $60s to mid-$50s by mid-2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) attributes this decline mainly to accelerated OPEC+ production increases and resultant global inventory builds exceeding 2 million barrels per day in late 2025 and early 2026, exerting strong downward pressure on prices.
In H2 2025, Brent is projected to average $66-69 USD/barrel, gradually declining to around $58 USD by mid-2026. WTI crude oil is expected to average $63-65 USD/barrel and slide to $55-56 USD by mid-2026.
The overall consensus among reputable institutions points to a scenario of increasing supply, particularly from OPEC+ and major non-OPEC producers, combined with sustained inventory builds that depress prices through H2 2025 and into mid-2026 before potential moderation later in 2026.
Global demand growth is forecasted to be between 0.7-1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand growth of around 700 kb/d in 2025 and again in 2026, led by emerging markets such as India and China. OPEC anticipates 1.3 mb/d annual growth across both years, particularly in non-OECD regions.
The projections do not account for any severe disruptions that could cause significant price spikes. However, short-term volatility, such as $80-100 USD/barrel, is possible due to conflict escalation, but severe disruptions are absent, favoring gradual price compression.
In addition, the EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to peak around 13.6 million barrels per day by December 2025, then moderate somewhat in 2026, influenced by falling prices that will temper drilling activity and output growth. OECD inventories are likely to grow from 61 to 66 days of supply by end-2026.
The EIA also anticipates non-OPEC+ supply and NGL growth of ~1.4-1.8 mb/d in 2025 and ~0.9 mb/d in 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent ~$63, WTI ~$59 for 2025, anticipating a mild surplus of ~0.8 mb/d. The projected price range for Brent and WTI crude is lower than the earlier forecasts by Goldman Sachs and the EIA.
In summary, the consensus among reputable institutions forecasts Brent crude oil prices to remain in the $50 to $60 per barrel range during H2 2025 and around $50-$51 by mid-2026, while WTI crude oil prices are estimated to be slightly lower but within the low $60s to mid-$60s in mid-2026. The prevailing trend suggests expanded supply and softening global demand fundamentals will drive gradual price compression.
- As oil prices remain stable, the entertainment industry might observe a shift in production costs, potentially affecting both local and international movies, music, and television shows.
- The news industry is closely monitoring the developing energy sector, as changes in oil prices can influence global economy and international relations.
- Industries like politics, finance, and business are also paying attention to changing oil prices, as they tend to impact government revenues, investment strategies, and economic growth trajectories.
- The environmental sector is focusing on the implications of stable oil prices for renewable energy investments and carbon emissions policies, assessing whether oil price stability could hinder the growth of sustainable energy solutions.
- Historically, periods of stable oil prices have provided industrial sectors with predictable costs and helped maintain steady growth in various industries, such as manufacturing and transportation, while also attracting new business opportunities.
