European Realignment: The Case for a Fresh Alliance Beyond Military Budget Increases
European Union Faces Challenges in Forging New Transatlantic Order
The European Union (EU) is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape as it seeks to establish a new transatlantic order. The ongoing impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the rise of economic nationalism present significant challenges for the EU.
Uncertainty in U.S. domestic affairs, particularly under President Trump's administration, has led to unpredictable shifts in trade and security policies. This unpredictability has affected EU-US relations and made long-term cooperation more challenging. The EU's increasing dependence on the U.S. for security, energy, and economic stability has also raised concerns, as it undermines European strategic autonomy.
The EU's trade vulnerabilities are evident in recent agreements where Europe conceded to high U.S. tariffs, but at a cost that includes paying more for U.S. defense equipment and energy products. This is seen as a political concession rather than a win for Europe’s economy.
The risk of the EU's focus on strengthening defense ties with the U.S. coming at the expense of economic and political cohesion within the EU itself is also a concern. Pressure from the pandemic's economic fallout has intensified calls for protectionism and national economic prioritization, threatening to fragment the EU's internal unity and complicate its transatlantic agenda.
Potential solutions discussed include assuming greater defense responsibility, developing strategic instruments like the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, focusing on long-term economic diversification and internal coordination, maintaining a balance between security cooperation and economic cohesion, and continuing diplomatic engagement.
The implementation of these solutions faces significant threats due to the conflation of social, anti-American, and potentially nationalist narratives in several nations. The recent American political moves, including defense and tariff actions, represent a form of shock therapy for the European Union and a crucial test of its 27 member states' capacity for collective action.
The future of a transatlantic security partnership depends not only on European budgets but also on Europe's definition of a military procurement policy that would maintain the acquisition of American equipment. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in The Hague on 25 June mandated a uniform military spending target of five percent of GDP for 23 EU member states.
The core objectives of the original Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) partnership, trade and investment, remain critically relevant for both parties today, and the current global agenda encourages a broadening of the TTIP project's scope. However, the relaunch of negotiations between the EU and the USA, modelled on the TTIP, has not yet been placed on the agenda.
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a faltering of the EU's quest for a federal future, despite joint borrowing success in fostering resilience and recovery. The implementation of the recommendations of the Draghi and Letta reports, urging the EU to unify the European community market, could increase the similarities between the two continental markets.
Sacrificing the European defence industrial and technological base is out of the question, and the 27 member states must recognize that the challenges of military cooperation extend beyond the articulation of staff and troops or the adaptation of national legal frameworks to European involvement in armed conflicts.
Ursula von der Leyen, on behalf of the Commission, has suspended new customs duties in response to the American announcement of a 90-day suspension. Retaliations against aggressive customs tariffs imposed by the USA, such as reorienting privileged economic relations towards China, are likely to be perceived as the ultimate provocation across the Atlantic.
The normalisation of relations between the EU and an independent Russia did not result in Russia's integration into a European organisation based on the "concentric circles" model. In the 1950s, France's opposition to a European Defence Community linked to NATO, due to communist and Gaullist forces, has limited the EU's military capacity.
Mikhail Gorbachev's proposals in the 1980s to reconsider the architecture of international relations from a pan-European perspective were largely overlooked by the EU. The implementation of the recommendations of the Draghi and Letta reports, urging the EU to unify the European community market, could increase the similarities between the two continental markets.
The future of the European Union hinges on its ability to balance security commitments to the U.S. with preserving economic independence and internal cohesion in a volatile geopolitical environment. Solutions focus on increasing defense responsibility, strengthening strategic autonomy, economic diversification, and diplomatic assertiveness to shape a more balanced and resilient transatlantic order.
- The European Union's energy security could be strengthened by exploring alternative sources and developing a more independent policy, to lessen dependence on the US for energy stability.
- Populism and protectionist sentiments, fueled by the economic fallout of the pandemic, pose a risk to the EU's legal frameworks and could hinder the implementation of policies that foster economic diversification.
- The ongoing negotiations for a new transatlantic order require a careful balance in finance, ensuring that investments in defense cooperation don't compromise the EU's economic stability or internal economic cohesion.
- In the context of the EU's policy-and-legislation and politics, a focus on business and trade with the US should be accompanied by a strategic approach that considers public opinion, particularly regarding concerns about European strategic autonomy. General news outlets could play a significant role in shaping this opinion and influencing the EU's approach to the new transatlantic order.
