Dropped Dollar Exchange Rate Following National Bank Intervention Amount Revealed
In the economic landscape of Kazakhstan, the US dollar has been strengthening against the tenge. This trend has been evident throughout 2025, with the USD/KZT rate reaching a high of about 544-545 tenge per dollar in late July, reflecting a roughly 3.6% year-to-date increase in the dollar’s value against the tenge.
Exchange offices reported the dollar surpassing 540 tenge in late July, with the National Bank setting the official rate at around 544.87 tenge per dollar on July 28. This depreciation of the tenge is primarily driven by market forces, including increased money supply and higher demand for imports fueled by substantial government fiscal spending on infrastructure and social projects.
The National Bank has adopted a floating exchange rate regime since 2015, allowing market supply and demand to determine the tenge's value.
Looking ahead, the USD/KZT rate is expected to continue rising. Projections indicate an 11.67% increase by the end of 2025, potentially reaching about 603 tenge per dollar. The short-term forecast rate is around 556.71 tenge per dollar.
Over the past 24 hours, the dollar rate decreased by 5.42 tenge in Kazakhstan. However, the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, Sklyar, has forecasted a retreat of the dollar rate.
In summary, the current trend shows a weakening tenge against the US dollar due to fiscal expansion and external demand pressures. With market-driven exchange rates and a forecast of continued depreciation throughout 2025, it will be interesting to see how these economic dynamics unfold in the coming months.
- The strengthening of the US dollar against the tenge in Kazakhstan's economic landscape can be attributed to increased demand for imports, fueled by substantial government spending in the finance sector, particularly in infrastructure and social projects.
- Within the energy industry, the depreciation of the tenge against the US dollar may impact the cost of imported machinery and equipment, potentially raising the overall expenses for large-scale energy projects in Kazakhstan.
