Calling BS on Altcoin Season Predictions: Vandell's Take
Cryptocurrency Expert Vandell of BlackSwan Responds to Suggestions of an Altcoin Boom and Bitcoin's Leading Position in the Market
In his latest post, Vandell, co-founder of BlackSwan Capitalist, sets the record straight about the so-called altcoin season. He's quick to point out that anyone predicting an altcoin season is on is clueless about how the crypto market rollercoaster works.
The reason? Well, altcoin seasons usually kick off once Bitcoin dominance hits rock bottom, with a sharp 10-20% drop from its current, strong position. Historically, we don't see such a decline when Bitcoin dominance is at 64%, as it is now. In Vandell's words, we're still stuck in the horsephase with Bitcoin leading the charge and altcoins recoiling in the shadows.
Bitcoin Dominance: Not What It Used to Be
So, what does Bitcoin dominance really tell us? In the past, it was a pretty good prediction tool for where the market was heading. But those days are long gone, as now macro factors seem to be driving the show, rather than altcoin-specific triggers. As Bitcoin dominates, more institutional players and big-time investors are piling in, making Bitcoin a force to be reckoned with.
However, this trend won't last forever. According to Vandell, we're due for a correction phase, where capital will begin to overflow into altcoins. When that happens, Bitcoin's dominance will wane, giving altcoins their chance to steal the limelight.
When Will the Next Altcoin Season Arrive?
So, when will the next big altcoin season roll around? In Vandell's view, we can expect it once Bitcoin suffers a serious pullback. And he's betting it will happen in 2025. Once Bitcoin's dominance slides by the required 10-20%, investors will start pouring money into altcoins, creating an optimal environment for altcoin growth.
When that moment comes, expect the likes of Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano to reap the benefits, as they'll all likely see increased attention and investment from the new liquidity. Traditionally, altcoins thrive during these periods, with prices soaring when capital flows into the market.
Investors are eagerly waiting for the next altcoin season, as it could offer substantial returns for those brave enough to pick the right altcoins. But remember, they'll have to be patient and wait for Bitcoin to take a hard fall before the season starts in earnest.
[1] Vandell, J. (2022). The Next Altcoin Season: When and Why. BlackSwan Capitalist Blog. Retrieved from https://blackswancapitalist.com/next-altcoin-season/
- Vandell's take on the so-called altcoin season dismisses any predictions of its imminent arrival, stating that current Bitcoin dominance (64%) doesn't align with historical factors that typically precipitate altcoin seasons.
- The traditional view linked altcoin seasons with a significant drop in Bitcoin dominance, but Vandell suggests we're still in the horse phase, with Bitcoin leading the charge and altcoins remaining in the shadows.
- Bitcoin's dominance was once a reliable indicator of market trends, but today, macro factors seem to be driving the crypto market, with institutional players and big-time investors favoring Bitcoin.
- Despite Bitcoin's dominance, Vandell anticipates a correction phase, during which capital will flow into altcoins, causing Bitcoin's dominance to wane.
- The next altcoin season will materialize when Bitcoin undergoes a serious pullback, allowing altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano to thrive, benefiting from increased liquidity and investment attention.
- Investors eagerly anticipate the next altcoin season in the hope of substantial returns, but they must remain patient and wait for Bitcoin to experience a marked decline before the season truly begins.
- Speculation surrounding altcoin seasons and the choosing of the right altcoins carries the potential for higher financial returns, but it all relies on the timing of the next Bitcoin retracement, which Vandell predicts might occur in 2025.
