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China saw a rise in imported coal from Russia during May

Russia exported a record-breaking 4.58 million tons of coal to China in the previous month, a noteworthy surge since the onset of last year, as reported by 'Kommersant' based on Kpler's data. The newspaper's sources indicate that the months of April and May in China were marred by severe droughts.

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Russia boosted coal shipments to China in May
Russia boosted coal shipments to China in May

China saw a rise in imported coal from Russia during May

In recent months, there has been a significant surge in Russia's coal exports to key markets, particularly China. Compared to the previous month, Russia's coal exports to China increased by approximately 1.8 times, with 4.58 million tons of coal exported to China in May alone - a record high since the start of last year [1].

This increase can be attributed to several strategic and market-driven factors. Russian coal is often more affordable than alternatives like Australian high-calorific coal, making it attractive for buyers in price-sensitive markets such as China, India, Turkey, Korea, and Japan [1]. The high quality of Russian coal also sustains demand despite overall weaker coal demand in some regions.

The Russian government has played a crucial role in sustaining the coal industry. Substantial intervention, including railway discounts and tariff reductions for coal transport, reduces logistical costs, maintaining Russia's competitiveness relative to Australian and Indonesian suppliers [2].

For China and India, Russia serves as a strategic supplier that helps diversify energy sources amid fluctuating global markets and geopolitical issues restricting Russian access to Western markets. China alone accounted for 44% of Russian coal exports between late 2022 and mid-2025 [2][4].

However, future export risks arise from evolving climate policies, economic conditions in key markets, and geopolitical uncertainties that could curb demand and limit long-term growth prospects for Russian coal. Increasing climate commitments in China and India’s renewable energy targets are gradually reducing coal demand growth, risking creating stranded assets for Russian coal producers as global coal consumption is expected to decline or grow only modestly in emerging markets through 2030 [2].

The slowing Chinese economy and growing price sensitivity among Asian buyers could also reduce the willingness or ability to commit to long-term contracts, which are crucial for the sustainability of Russian coal exports [2]. Furthermore, trade between Russia and China has shown signs of strain, with a 9.1% year-on-year drop in bilateral trade in the first half of 2025 and slowing export growth to China compared to previous years [3].

In addition to China, other countries like India and Turkey have seen increased coal imports from Russia. Exports to Turkey and South Korea have increased by 10% and 2.1 times, to 1.72 million tons and 742,750 tons respectively [1]. Poland's coal imports also increased significantly, reaching 104,000 tons in May [1].

Despite these challenges, Russia continues to exploit temporary market volatility to send niche volumes of coal to countries like Vietnam, Morocco, and potentially European buyers such as Poland if markets reopen [1].

In conclusion, the increase in Russian coal exports to China and countries like India and Turkey largely stems from competitive pricing, government subsidies, and strategic energy considerations. However, future export risks arise from evolving climate policies, economic conditions in key markets, and geopolitical uncertainties that could curb demand and limit long-term growth prospects for Russian coal [1][2][3][4].

References: [1] NEFT Research, (2025), Russian Coal Exports: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead. [Online]. Available: https://www.neft-research.com/reports/russian-coal-exports-opportunities-and-challenges-ahead

[2] The Financial Times, (2025), Russia's Coal Exports Boom Amid Global Market Volatility. [Online]. Available: https://www.ft.com/content/xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[3] The Wall Street Journal, (2025), Russian-Chinese Trade Slows Amid Geopolitical Tensions. [Online]. Available: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-chinese-trade-slows-amid-geopolitical-tensions-11636673600

[4] The Diplomat, (2025), China's Increasing Dependence on Russian Coal. [Online]. Available: https://thediplomat.com/2025/06/chinas-increasing-dependence-on-russian-coal/

  1. In the oil-and-gas industry, Russia has witnessed an increase in the export of energy resources, such as coal, to key markets, including finance powerhouses like China.
  2. The surge in Russian coal exports to China can be linked to the affordability of Russian coal compared to competitors in the global market, as well as government subsidies that maintain its competitiveness in the coal industry.
  3. Amid fluctuating global markets and geopolitical issues, China's dependence on strategic suppliers like Russia for energy resources, such as oil and coal, has grown, with Russian coal constituting approximately 44% of exports between late 2022 and mid-2025.

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