Approximately 20% of finance leaders assert that the United States has already entered a period of economic downturn, known as a recession.
U.S. Economy Outlook: Slowed Growth and Increased Uncertainty
The outlook for the U.S. economy has seen a shift in the past few quarters, with business leaders and economists expressing cautious optimism rather than outright optimism. According to a recent survey by the AICPA and CIMA, the optimism reported at the end of 2024 has "ebbed dramatically."
The survey, conducted in the second quarter of 2025, gathered responses from 328 CPAs and chartered global management accountants who hold leadership positions at their organizations. More than half of the respondents (51%) were from the AICPA's websites, and 19% were controllers or comptrollers.
Currently, only 27% of the same respondents report feeling optimistic about the U.S. economy, a significant drop from the 67% reported at the end of 2024. Sixty-three percent of the same survey pointed to "trade issues" broadly as the largest economic risk.
The survey also revealed that more than half of the respondents are experiencing some level of uncertainty due to tariffs. About 35% of respondents said they're increasing their prices for customers as a result of tariffs. Forty percent of respondents characterized their uncertainty as moderate, and another 27% described it as significant. One in five business executives believe the United States has already entered a recession. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they were unsure about their expectations for a potential recession.
However, the prevailing view at mid-2025 is that the U.S. economy is more likely to experience slowed growth and increased uncertainty rather than a definitive recession by the end of 2025. This consensus is supported by several key points.
Real GDP growth projections for 2025 have been downgraded, with estimates around 1.5% (EY) to 1.6% (The Conference Board), down from previous years but not negative. The unemployment rate hovers near 4.2%, which helps to keep recession fears in check.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index declined in the first half of 2025, triggering a recession signal for three consecutive months, but the organization does not forecast a recession this year, rather slower growth.
According to a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey, 59% of economists see recession as a top risk in the coming year, indicating elevated caution. However, major financial institutions such as J.P. Morgan have lowered the chance of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 60% to 40%.
Despite some public pessimism, leading economists remain cautiously optimistic. For example, Ryan Severino at BGO says a recession is unlikely due to strong economic momentum, a tight labor market, wage growth, and productivity gains, even though trade policy risks exist.
In summary, while a majority of business economists and leaders consider recession a significant risk in the near term, the prevailing view at mid-2025 is that the U.S. economy is more likely to experience slowed growth and increased uncertainty rather than a definitive recession by the end of 2025. However, risks such as trade policy, tariffs, and inflation remain factors potentially capable of tipping the balance.
[1] EY. (2025). U.S. Economic Forecast. [Online] Available at: https://www.ey.com/en_us/economics/us-economic-forecast [Accessed 15 June 2025].
[2] Severino, R. (2025). U.S. Recession Unlikely Despite Trade Policy Risks. Forbes. [Online] Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanseverino/2025/06/15/u-s-recession-unlikely-despite-trade-policy-risks/?sh=7589467f6f3a [Accessed 15 June 2025].
[3] The Conference Board. (2025). Leading Economic Index. [Online] Available at: https://www.conference-board.org/data/business-cycle/leading-economic-index.cfm [Accessed 15 June 2025].
[4] National Association for Business Economics. (2025). Survey of Professional Forecasters. [Online] Available at: https://www.nabe.org/research/survey-of-professional-forecasters [Accessed 15 June 2025].
[5] J.P. Morgan. (2025). Global Economic Outlook. [Online] Available at: https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/global-economics/global-economic-outlook [Accessed 15 June 2025].
- Trade issues and tariffs pose significant risks to U.S. businesses, leading some to increase prices for customers and causing over half of the surveyed business leaders to experience uncertainty.
- The lowered real GDP growth projections for 2025 indicate slowed growth rather than a definitive recession, with estimates around 1.5% to 1.6%.
- Despite increased caution from economists and trade policy risks, leading economists remain cautiously optimistic, citing factors such as strong economic momentum, a tight labor market, wage growth, and productivity gains.
- The overall consensus among business leaders and economists is that the U.S. economy is more likely to face slowed growth and increased uncertainty rather than a definitive recession by the end of 2025. However, risks such as inflation remain factors that could potentially tip the balance.
