Anticipating events of interest for investors in DAX, S&P500, and other prominent financial markets.
In the wake of Donald Trump's re-election as the US President, many investors are questioning whether this election outcome signifies a year-end rally. Historically, the S&P500 has risen in the six months following a US presidential election, with the exceptions being the years 2000 and 2008. If history repeats itself, investors can expect positive returns in the following six months.
However, the impacts of this potential year-end rally are not limited to the US stock market. European securities, Bitcoin, gold, bonds, and other assets are expected to experience mixed impacts, influenced strongly by the EU-US trade deal finalized during Trump's second term.
European securities have surged recently to four-month highs following the trade deal announcement between the US and the EU. Key sectors like automotive and technology have led gains, with some shares rising up to 3% and overall stock indices reaching significant peaks. However, European defense stocks lag as the deal includes commitments to buy American equipment.
Bonds in Europe have seen yields decrease, indicating investor confidence and a demand for safer assets amid reduced trade uncertainty. Yet bond markets remain wary of inflation risks.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not explicitly mentioned in the search results related to the trade deal or post-election market rally. Typically, such assets may react to geopolitical uncertainty or risk appetite shifts, but concrete expected impacts in this scenario are not detailed here.
Gold, often considered a safe haven during uncertainty, is not mentioned in the provided results about gold price movements or investor behavior concerning gold around the trade deal or election period.
Other assets including bonds and commodities are subject to inflation and economic growth prospects influenced by tariffs. The new deal imposes a 15% US tariff on most EU exports, higher than previous low tariffs but lower than originally threatened levels. This tariff is expected to raise trade costs and may lead to economic losses, disproportionately impacting countries like Germany, Italy, and Ireland and sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
Overall, while European equities rally on reduced trade war fear, medium to longer-term effects include higher costs, inflation concerns, and uneven sectoral impacts. The broader impact on Bitcoin, gold, and other assets remains uncertain based on the available information. Longer-term economic pain from tariffs and inflation may temper sustained rallies.
For a deeper analysis of these impacts, viewers are invited to watch a BÖRSE ONLINE YouTube video.
- Europe's stock market appreciation, driven partly by the trade deal, might have implications for other assets, such as bonds, Bitcoin, and gold, as they could all be affected by inflation and economic growth prospects due to tariffs.
- The decrease in bond yields in Europe signifies increased investor confidence, but it also indicates a possible concern about inflation risks in the future.
- Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may not have a clear-cut impact on the observed market trends as they are not explicitly mentioned in the details regarding the trade deal or post-election market rally.
