Anticipated Inflation Rate in Conservative Estimate by Ministry of Economy Stands at 8.2%
*Here's the rewritten article:
Let's break down the latest economic forecasts, shall we?
MinEcon, the economic powerhouse, has set the annual dollar rate at a conservative 96.6 rubles and a base scenario of 94.3 rubles. The oil price prediction for Urals crude in the conservative scenario remains stable at $56, while it's forecasted at $56 in the base scenario and takes a dip to $48.8 in the conservative extreme. The trade balance, on the other hand, is expected to hit $86.8 billion in the base scenario, lowering to $71.4 billion in the conservative scenario.
Industrial growth isn't expected to reach the rooftops in the conservative scenario, estimated at just 2%, compared to the chirpy 2.6% in the base scenario. Wages follow a similar tale, with 5.3% in the conservative corner and 6.8% in the base scenario. Unemployment, though, remains constant at 2.5% in both scenarios. Investment growth, too, takes a hit, predicted at 0.8% in the conservative scenario and soars to 1.7% in the base scenario.
Now, we've got some witty economists throwing their two cents in. Ilya Fedorov, the chief economist at BCS World of Investments, seems to think that MinEcon's GDP growth rates, given the tight monetary policy, cautious budget, and dodgy labor resources, are a tad overambitious, to put it mildly.
Similarly, Sofia Doneц, the chief economist at T-Investments, raises an eyebrow at the GDP growth in Q1, which, she notes, was lower than MinEcon's forecast in both scenarios.
So, what's the consensus among analysts? Well, while the exact figures aren't specified, the IMF has revised its 2025 growth projection upwards, albeit slightly, citing policy tightening and lower oil prices. The official figures show a GDP growth of 1.9% for the beginning of 2025.
On the flip side, independent projections suggest that a trade war would knock the growth down to 1.8%. Other factors, such as oil prices, trade policies, and fiscal adjustments, impact these predictions, but they all seem to converge around the 1.5%-1.9% range.
Want more deets on this revisited macro forecast for the next three years? Check out our article here.
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- The annual dollar rate as per MinEcon's forecast in the conservative scenario is 96.6 rubles.
- The conservative forecast for Urals crude oil price is $56, while it's expected to be $56 in the base scenario and slightly drop to $48.8 in the conservative extreme.
- The trade balance is predicted to be $71.4 billion in the conservative scenario, lower than the $86.8 billion expected in the base scenario.
- Ilya Fedorov, the chief economist at BCS World of Investments, believes that MinEcon's GDP growth rates, given the current monetary policy, budget, and labor resources, may be overly ambitious.
