Anticipated Deceleration of Romania's Q2 GDP by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, as per Erste Group's forecast
Romania's economy is expected to experience a mild contraction in the second quarter of 2022, according to recent forecasts from Erste Group and ING. The exact figures for Q2 2022 are not readily available, but the anticipated decline is significant as it would mark the first annual decrease in several years.
The latest projections suggest a -0.1% q/q contraction in Q2, which, when adjusted for seasonal and workday variations, would still result in a 0.25% y/y advance for the GDP. This expected contraction would be the first annual decline since the coronavirus pandemic period.
Erste Group's expectations for a 1.8% y/y contraction refer to the unadjusted real GDP. This forecast was revised in June, lowering it from the previous +1.8% for 2025. It's worth noting that Erste Group's recent commentary has focused more on inflation and monetary policy rather than past quarters in 2022.
Meanwhile, ING recently projected only a 0.3% economic advance for Romania in 2021. The Austrian bank's forecast for Romania's economy in Q2 suggests a -1.8% y/y decline, which would be the first annual decrease in several years.
The flash Q2 GDP data for Romania will be announced on Thursday, August 14, by Romania's statistics office. Analysts' expectations have further depressed since June, with Romania's Q2 GDP expected to show a -1.8% y/y contraction.
For context, Romania's economy grew by 4.0% in 2022 overall, according to FocusEconomics, a platform that compiles economic forecasts and data aggregates from major financial institutions like Erste and ING. Looking ahead, both Erste Group and ING have projected optimistic growth rates for Romania's economy in the coming years, with ING forecasting Romania's economy to possibly double its GDP in the next 10 years with a 3-3.5% average annual growth rate.
However, for the most accurate and up-to-date forecasts for Q2 2022 and the full year 2022, it is recommended to consult Erste Group and ING's original economic reports from that period or their official publications directly.
In contrast to the optimistic projected growth rates for the next 10 years, both Erste Group and ING have forecasted a -1.8% y/y contraction for Romania's economy in Q2 2022, marking the first annual decrease since the coronavirus pandemic period in their unadjusted real GDP projection. The anticipated decline, if confirmed, could have significant implications for the country's finance and business sectors.
