Anticipated accumulation of selling stress from temporary Bitcoin accounts
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold a significant position. Here's a rundown of its current status, based on recent developments.
The week's closing price of Bitcoin could potentially determine its trajectory, with a recovery towards higher prices or a shift towards a lower price range on the horizon. This prediction is backed by the recent behaviour of wallet cohorts, who have been buying Bitcoin since the April dip, with short-term records showing a higher cost basis.
Despite this, long-term holders with wallets aged over a year are maintaining their positions, albeit with sporadic whale activity and selling. Notably, Bitcoin has not experienced significant drawdowns during this market cycle, but traders and holders remain cautious, fearful of being caught in a downturn.
Currently, Bitcoin is holding above a dense supply cluster between $93k and $110k, a potential floor if sustained sell pressure is absent. The price range of Bitcoin is currently between $109,000 and $112,000, a critical pivot zone.
In the past day, there were limited liquidations of $16.6M for long positions and $24M for short positions, indicating a relatively stable market. Derivative markets are causing relatively smaller crashes due to traders being more cautious in building up liquidity.
A weekly close above the $109,000 - $112,000 range could strengthen the trend, while closing below it may accelerate the correction. It's worth noting that the current price range is a key area of support and resistance, determined by the newest cohorts of wallets aged 1-3 months. Rallies may face resistance as these investors seek to exit at breakeven.
Attention and accumulation have recently shifted from Bitcoin to Ethereum, with Bitcoin no longer being the engine of growth. However, the largest Bitcoin whales, including Satoshi Nakamoto with about 1.1 million BTC, and the largest single wallet, a Binance exchange wallet holding nearly 250,000 BTC, are still holding Bitcoin in the price range of $109,000 to $112,000. There are also 1,455 wallets holding over 1,000 BTC as of May 2025, representing a significant accumulation by large holders.
Based on the Crypto Fear and Greed index, Bitcoin's current position is neutral, with no immediate signs of panic. The BTC liquidation heatmap shows a similar range, with a slight shift between $111,000 and $114,000. More distributed long positions reach all the way down to $110,000, potentially triggering a series of liquidations for long positions. These wallets, holding 8.82% of the total Bitcoin supply, are underwater due to the current price around $112,000.
Finally, open interest remains above $38B, though growing more cautiously. Hyperliquid whales are more conservative, with fewer flashy positions. This cautious approach suggests a market that is treading carefully, reflecting the overall sentiment of traders and holders.
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