Unplanned shoplifting outnumbers organized retail theft, according to a recent study.
Stealing on the Rise Again:
- Shoplifting incidents, not including staff offenses, witnessed a 2% decrease last year compared to 2019 but surged 22% from 2022 to 2023, as per the updated crime report from the Council on Criminal Justice released this week.
- The majority of these incidents involved a single or two individuals, according to CCJ's research, deviating from the National Retail Federation's (NRF) definition of organized retail crime involving multiple offenders.
- Assaults in stores increased significantly during the first half of 2023 as compared to the same period in 2019, with approximately 1% of those incidents involving shoplifting and an assault.
In-Depth Analysis:
Shoplifting incidents dropped drastically during the pandemic due to lockdowns and social distancing, but as customers resumed in-store shopping, so too have the thieves.
In 2019, the number of reported shoplifting incidents was 237.8 per 100,000 residents across the 25 cities assessed in the report. This figure dropped to 183.4 in 2020 and further decreased to 170.1 in 2021. However, as store traffic resumed, so did shoplifting reports, reaching 190.4 per 100,000 in 2022 and 232.8 in 2023.
Moreover, during this period of inflation, the median value of stolen goods increased, as indicated by the report.
The authors of the report attributed the increase in shoplifting and robberies to the return to normal living conditions and daily routines, which increased the opportunities for certain types of offenses.
Retail industry groups, such as the NRF and the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA), have emphasized organized retail crime as a major threat to stores and their customers. However, the topic remains shrouded in confusion, with inconsistent terminology and statistics heavily used. The NRF retracted a significant claim regarding the financial impact of organized retail crime last year, and RILA's data remains unupdated since 2019.
Gathering and evaluating crime data has been notoriously challenging, and the CCJ authors themselves offered several caveats, such as the potential non-representativeness of the cities analyzed and inconsistencies in the classification of offenses across cities, along with the fact that not all cities report data for each crime.
Incomplete reporting of shoplifting incidents, particularly involving larger groups, could exaggerate the perceived scale of the problem, as the overwhelming majority of incidents involve singles or duos rather than large groups, as depicted in viral videos of smash-and-grab incidents. Nonetheless, further research is required to quantify the extent of this under-reporting.
Enrichment Insights:
- The shoplifting trends and offender behaviors have experienced shifts post-pandemic, with regional variations in incidents. Significant increases were observed in New York City (64%) and Los Angeles (61%), while decreases occurred in St. Petersburg (-78%) and St. Paul (-65%) from 2019-2023.
- Retailers have reported an increase in aggressive or violent behavior from shoplifters, adopting more brazen tactics.
- Economic pressures induced by tariffs on Chinese goods may contribute to desperation-driven theft in price-sensitive categories like groceries and electronics.
- The link between shoplifting and drug addiction is a developing social attitude that could influence future shoplifting rates, although a causal relationship has yet to be confirmed.
- The surge in shoplifting incidents from 2022 to 2023, as seen in the updated crime report, contrasts with the 2% decrease experienced in 2020 and 2021.
- Despite the increase in shoplifting, the majority of incidents involved single or two individuals, according to the Council on Criminal Justice's research.
- Assaults in stores also significantly increased in the first half of 2023, with approximately 1% of those incidents involving both shoplifting and assault.
- During the pandemic, shoplifting incidents drastically dropped due to lockdowns and social distancing, but as customers resumed in-store shopping, the number of reports increased.
- In the midst of inflation, the median value of stolen goods rose, as indicated by the updated crime report.
- The authors of the report attribute the rise in shoplifting and robberies to the return to normal living conditions and daily routines, which increased the opportunities for certain types of offenses.
- Retail industry groups, such as the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA), have highlighted organized retail crime as a major concern in the retail industry but lack updated data.
- Gathering and evaluating crime data is challenging, and inconsistent terminology and statistics are heavily used, as noted in the report.
- Further research is necessary to quantify the extent of incomplete reporting of shoplifting incidents, particularly involving larger groups, which could potentially exaggerate the perceived scale of the problem.
