UniCredit's CEO Orcel aims for ECB banking position within a six-day timeline for a decision.
Here's the Rewritten Article:
Let's shed some light on the seven-day period Unicredit's got to sort things out regarding Banco BPM and decide whether to call it quits on the file. Strap in, folks, as we dive into the bank's strategy to counteract the prescriptions issued by Palazzo Chigi last week, using their golden powers.
Over the holiday weekend, Unicredit's legal team in Piazza Gae Aulenti has been burning the midnight oil, crafting a response strategy involving both European and domestic authorities. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) are on the international front, while domestically we've got the Bank of Italy, Consob, and Antitrust.
Now, here's the catch; Andrea Orcel, Unicredit's CEO, is pressing hard to close the Commerzbank deal ASAP. The latest constraints seem too steep, and discussions are underway regarding commitments on BTPs through Anima Holding for a five-year period, as well as a total exit from Russian businesses by January 2026.
You might be wondering if a diplomatic nod from Palazzo Chigi could help push the Commerzbank deal through, once the German government forms.
Unicredit's contemplating seeking an ECB opinion. According to sources close to the file, they're investigating every possible avenue, even at the EU level. Frankly, considering the green light from Frankfurt, most observers didn't anticipate such stringent conditions, especially since they weren't imposed on Monte dei Paschi for the Mediobanca deal, nor on Bper for the Sondrio deal.
The preservation of the "Italianness" of savings is one of the reasons why the feasibility of the Piazza Gae Aulenti operation is under question. Orcel's concerns extend beyond Russia, where the exposure has already been reduced by 94% since the start of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. He's also got his eyes on the BTP portfolio holdings related to Anima - the object of BPM's public takeover offer - which seems quite limiting for such a long period, five years.
Moreover, imposing industrial plan prescriptions on a private, listed, and globally operating company is questionable, according to legal sources close to the file. So, brace yourself for Unicredit exploiting every regulatory lever to clarify their position before the BPM operation launch. The public exchange offer kicks off on April 28 and runs until June 23, with settlement on June 30. If there's no wiggle room, a postponement might be evaluated, but that's not Orcel's preferred move for reputation's sake. Mention of turning to the TAR, and even the Council of State, isn't off the table, although many internal reservations exist due to the length and uncertainty of those measures.
Now, there's another unknown Unicredit's board is chewing over: the economy. The International Monetary Fund is set to cut global growth forecasts today, and the United States, China, and Europe will suffer the most due to the trade war instigated by Washington.
If you thought the trade tussle was over, well, think again. Orcel would have preferred a swift process to avoid market volatility caused by the tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump. But, according to internal reflections, conditions have changed, the scenario is more challenging, and costs could be too steep to handle both Commerzbank and BPM.
To counterbalance, support for the deal on the second German bank could be requested, which could gain internal support from HypoVereinsbank, acquired by Unicredit in 2005.
Beyond the active BCE and Palazzo Chigi channels, there's another option that might be gaining traction as we speak. This would be a more diplomatic route, an intercession to facilitate the takeover of Piazza Gae Aulenti by the German Commerzbank. This strategy would include an opinion from the European Central Bank, whose non-binding opinion would carry significant weight on community views on banking, and reassurances from the Italian government to Berlin on both employment and future investments.
Just when you thought things would calm down, here comes Piazza Affari with its first analyst reaction. Despite geopolitical turbulence, the mood seems to be intriguing.
- The legal team at Unicredit's Piazza Gae Aulenti location has been working over the holidays, devising a strategy to address prescriptions from Palazzo Chigi with involvement from both European and domestic authorities, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Banking Authority (EBA), the Bank of Italy, Consob, and Antitrust.
- Unicredit's CEO, Andrea Orcel, is pushing to expedite the Commerzbank deal, though recent constraints have proved challenging, leading to discussions about commitments on BTPs through Anima Holding for a five-year period and a complete exit from Russian businesses by January 2026.
- To help push the Commerzbank deal through, especially once the German government forms, Unicredit is considering seeking an ECB opinion and investigating every possible avenue, even at the EU level.
- Concerns regarding the placement of Anima's BTP portfolio holdings, which are part of Banco BPM's public takeover offer, are limiting for a five-year period, according to Unicredit's CEO, Andrea Orcel.
- As the International Monetary Fund is set to cut global growth forecasts, Unicredit is also keeping a close eye on the economic conjuncture, addressing the potential impact of the trade war instigated by Washington on the finance industry and their investing business in banking and insurance.
