Trump's Economic Woes: Stock Market Woes and Trade Tensions
Trump's Initial 100 Days: Stock Market's Performance Assessment
Let's take a look at President Donald Trump's latest financial moves, as analyzed by the panelists of "The Claman Countdown."
As we approach the 100-day post-inauguration mark for Trump's second term, his economic record isn't looking too hot. The S&P 500 Index has tumbled 7.9% since his Inauguration Day, compared to a 5% gain during his first 100 days in office back in 2016.
This decline is the second-largest drop in a president's first 100 days since Richard Nixon's second term in 1972, when the S&P 500 plummeted 9.9%. Only George W. Bush's second term in 2004 saw a smaller decline, with the S&P 500 tumbling 1.6%.
Trump's second term is the first presidential term since Bush's second term in 2004 to see the market plunge during the first 100 days. Overall, seven presidential terms have started with a market downturn in the first 100 days, while 14 have seen an uptick.
*TRUMP'S FIRST 100 DAYS: INFLATION UPDATES*
Turning to inflation during the initial 100 days of Trump's second term—it's been a mixed bag. The administration under Franklin D. Roosevelt, who died in office in 1944, witnessed the strongest S&P 500 performance, with a 10.4% gain during that 100-day period.
Following Roosevelt, notable gains in the first 100 days of a presidential term were recorded under John F. Kennedy (+8.9%), Joe Biden (+8.5%), and Barack Obama (+8.4%). Ronald Reagan is the only Republican president since World War II to see positive performance in the S&P 500 during both of his presidential terms, with gains of 0.9% and 5% in the first 100 days of his first and second terms, respectively.
*CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WHIPSAWED*
Trump's announcement of a "reciprocal" tariff policy, based on bilateral trade deficits, as part of his "Liberation Day" policy has contributed to investor anxiety.
CFRA's report suggests that investors are focusing on the next 100 days and whether the results of the first or next 100 days are indicative of full-year returns. Historically, the S&P 500 has seen an average gain of 3.2% during the following 100 days and has been higher 65% of the time[2].
However, below-average returns during the first 100 days have been a bad omen for the rest of the year, with an average full-year decline of 5.5%, while periods of above-average decline have historically resulted in a 22% full-year gain[2].
*TARIFFS, TRADE TENSIONS, AND VOLATILITY*
Financial markets have been on a rollercoaster ride following Trump's aggressive trade policies. The uncertainty surrounding the duration of tariffs, potential escalations, and fears of disruption leading to a recession have kept investors on edge.
In his speech to a joint session of Congress in early March, Trump assured that the short-term disruption caused by his tariffs would be worth it in the long run[3]. Nonetheless, the search for a trade deal with various trading partners and the impact of tariffs on prices continue to be key concerns for investors.
*STAY TUNED TO FOX BUSINESS FOR THE LATEST ON TRUMP'S ECONOMIC MOVES*
That's all for now, folks. Stay tuned to Fox Business for the latest updates on President Trump's economic policies and market performance.
[1] Historical data accessed from: https://www.cfra.com/[2] Historical data and performance analysis accessed from: https://www.cfra.com/[3] Transcript of Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress: https://www.c-span.org/
- Despite President Donald Trump's efforts as analyzed by "The Claman Countdown," his second term's economic record seems less impressive, with the S&P 500 Index decreasing by 7.9% since his Inauguration Day.
- Trump's second term is the first presidential term since George W. Bush's second term in 2004 to witness a market downturn during the first 100 days.
- Historically, the S&P 500 has seen an average gain of 3.2% during the following 100 days after experiencing below-average returns during the first 100 days, but this has often presaged a 5.5% full-year decline.
- Inflation performance during Trump's initial 100 days was mixed, with comparatively strong gains in the first 100 days observed under Ronald Reagan and several other Democratic presidents.
- Trump's announcement of a "reciprocal" tariff policy has caused investor anxiety, contributing to the current state of market volatility.
- Financial markets continue to be volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the duration of tariffs, potential escalations, and fears of disruption leading to a recession.
