Title: Justin Verlander Emerges as the New Force in SF Giants at 42
Justin Verlander, a bona fide Hall of Famer with a sterling 262-147, 3.30 career ERA, 3416 strikeouts, and 82.0 fWAR under his belt, doesn't need to prove anything more on the baseball field. The veteran pitcher, known for his exceptional control and diverse pitch repertoire, has notched two World Series rings and was the 2017 ALCS MVP. His success in the Majors, however, led some to question whether he'd remain a league-average starter in 2025, following a rough 2024 season marred by injuries and reduced velocity.
Though the San Francisco Giants rushed to ink a $15 million, one-year contract with Verlander, the agreement may not have seemed cost-effective on the surface. After missing out on free-agent phenoms Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes, the Giants were eager to bolster their roster to keep pace with NL West rivals the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks.
In defense of the deal, one must consider the diminishing value of the $15 million in today's free-agent market. The average starter figures to contribute around 2.0 fWAR across a full season. Learning of Verlander's 2024 struggles – 5-6 record, 5.48 ERA, 138 ERA-, 118 FIP-, 18.7 K% – plenty began to rule out the possibility of him returning to league-average form.
A closer examination of Verlander's performance in 2024 rekindled hope for a bounce back. While he'd wrestled with plate appearances and an ERA hovering above 4.00, Verlander continued to excel in areas that mattered most. His ability to limit hard contact, an ability that had always set him apart, held up remarkably well. And although his territory on the mound had shrunk due to Tommy John surgery in 2021 and a lingering shoulder issue in 2024, Verlander's pitching prowess persisted.
The main shortcomings in Verlander's game stemmed from his pitch count, lowering in particular due to unfavorable fortunes on batted balls. The good news for Giants fans was that his misfortune in that regard was evident. Verlander's Adjusted Line Drive and Ground Ball Contact Scores suggested he'd experienced poor luck, as hitters squared up on balls against him far too often. Verlander often found himself in the company of unlucky pitchers, as his Adjusted Line Drive Contact Score of 99 indicated.
Although his poor luck on batted balls in 2024 could not be overlooked, Verlander was identifiable as an ace in the fly ball category. With a 70 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score, an impressive 45.7% fly ball rate, and a 6.6% pop-up rate, Verlander proved a master of manipulating air-based contact. These findings served to validate his "true" - or batted ball-based - ERA- of 96, placing him slightly above league average and on par with unheralded Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo.
If Verlander could get some of his catalyst pitches and velocity back, the Giants could find themselves with a formidable mid-rotation asset. Their patience in tugging at the thread of a veteran's revival could pay off handsomely, as their investment in Verlander was never truly expensive given the current trends in the free-agent market.
In sum, the Giants penned a one-year, $15 million contract with the ageless Verlander, who after a rough 2024, now hopes to showcase his continued value. An arm that had once struck fear into the hearts of Major League hitters still possessed the ability to calm hearts – and break bats – by controlling the highest percentage of contact in the air. The Giants' strategy of chasing luminaries Burnes and Snell and instead opting for the resilient Verlander remained a calculated risk that could pay off handsomely in 2025.
Despite the San Francisco Giants missing out on top free-agent pitchers Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes, acquiring Justin Verlander on a one-year, $15 million contract was a strategic move. The Houston Astros' former star, with his 262-147 record and 3.30 career ERA, could prove valuable for the Giants, especially considering his mastery of pitching in the fly ball category.
