The Potential Threat to Bitcoin: The Arrival of Quantum Computing
In the past few days, there's been a minor media furor surrounding Google's declaration about Willow, their new quantum computer, and its perceived menace to bitcoin. Many analyses reveal a strikingly shallow understanding of how quantum computing will impact cryptography and bitcoin's resistance to such technological advancements. We'll delve deeper into quantum computing and its potential hazards for bitcoin. While we'll tiptoe into technicalities, it's essential to grasp the real implications of recent developments.
In essence, quantum computing will necessitate a revision of bitcoin's protocol within the next few years, akin to the computer upgrades triggered by the Y2K. Although it'll likely be complex and time-consuming, it won't be an existential threat to bitcoin itself. Besides, it won't just affect bitcoin; quantum computers have the potential to shatter every cryptography system we use today across finance, commerce, banking, and beyond.
Some of the anxiety surrounding bitcoin's demise might stem from a "sour grapes" mentality. Critics who have long dismissed bitcoin, either due to disbelief, resentment towards its challenge to government control, or regret over missing the cheap investment opportunity, are leveraging Google's quantum computing news to predict bitcoin's downfall. These reactions often reflect the critics' bias more than bitcoin's vulnerabilities.
Beyond Bitcoin's Borders
Google's Willow quantum computer can perform calculations with 105 qubits, and its results are deemed (temporarily) quite accurate. Although a significant leap, deciphering bitcoin's encryption would require 200 to 400 million qubits. To achieve this within a decade, quantum bit depth would need to grow by over 324% every year, which is highly unlikely.
Nevertheless, quantum computing poses a real threat to bitcoin, and its protocol will need an update relatively soon. Conversations among bitcoin developers about the right time and manner to execute this update are already underway. When viable solutions become clearer, a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) will be published online for further discussion and experimentation. If selected by the community and integrated into the protocol, the changes will take effect once a majority of bitcoin nodes adopt them.
However, the changes required for bitcoin pale in comparison to the transformations necessary for thousands of other secure computing protocols and networks. The task of upgrading the world's cryptographic protocols might end up being significantly more complex than preparing for Y2K.
Discussing how quantum computing will impact cryptocurrencies overlooks the far more critical point: The end of encryption is not a problem exclusive to bitcoin; it's a global issue. The transition to a post-quantum world will be a daunting challenge to civilization's foundation.
The Foundation of Modern Life
Encryption is the backbone of contemporary life, underpinning practically every facet of tech-driven society. Financial systems rely on RSA encryption to secure online transactions, safeguarding sensitive data like credit card numbers and account information. Without encryption, banking ceases to exist.
E-commerce platforms rely on similar encryption principles to protect payment details during transactions between buyers and sellers. The absence of encryption would put an end to e-commerce.
Healthcare providers and institutions rely on encryption to exchange electronic health records and process payments. Without encryption, modern healthcare collapses.
Government agencies use encryption to safeguard classified communications, shielding sensitive information from potential adversaries. Without encryption, national security is compromised.
Encrypted commands protect Internet of Things (IoT) devices, from connected cars to smart home systems, preventing unauthorized control. Without encryption, smart devices become vulnerable.
The Long Haul for Decryption
Though conventional encryption methods may persist for years, if not decades, preparation for quantum supremacy has already begun in light of the "store now, decrypt later" threat.
One of the primary functions of encryption is to enable secure message transmission over insecure channels. For example, when logging into your bank account, your password is encrypted before it's sent over the internet to the bank. Along the way, it may pass through multiple servers that could theoretically save and store it. However, since the password is encrypted, it appears as nothing more than a string of random characters. An intruder can't decipher it, so saving it would be pointless.
However, should the day arrive when a powerful quantum computer breaks conventional encryption methods, the stored passwords can be decrypted.
This sort of patience might not pay off for bank account passwords, whose usefulness expires beyond a certain timeframe. Passwords change, accounts close, people pass away, and banks cease to exist. In some domains, though, encrypted data can be useful years or even decades after it's saved - confidential state secrets, or master password lists used across platforms, for instance.
If quantum computers are capable of cracking encryption within a few years or decades, attackers in sensitive domains like defense and intelligence would (and already do) collect and save all the encrypted data they can, even if it is currently indecipherable and useless. This is why groundwork is already being laid for the transition to post-quantum cryptography.
While advanced quantum computers may eventually break today's encryption methods, they could also lead to the development of more sophisticated cryptographic algorithms. Put another way, the advent of quantum computing doesn't necessarily signify the demise of cryptography as a whole, but rather a move towards more quantum-compatible encryption algorithms.
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is an area of active research, yielding promising results aimed at safeguarding systems against future quantum threats while preserving fundamental cryptographic security principles. Bitcoin and other digital platforms will need to embrace PQC advancements to preserve their integrity.
The backbone of PQC resides in intricate problems that quantum computers struggle to solve. Unlike current cryptography, which depends on the mathematical concept known as the "discrete logarithm problem" and integer factorization, both of which could be tackled efficiently by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, PQC algorithms are based on completely distinct frameworks. These include lattice-based cryptography, multivariate polynomial equations, and hash-based signatures, all displaying impressive resistance to quantum attacks.
Post-Quantum Cryptography Timeline
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has spearheaded this effort, coordinating a global initiative to standardize PQC. After exhaustive evaluations, NIST unveiled a set of candidate algorithms for post-quantum cryptographic standards in 2022, emphasizing concrete implementation and cross-industry applicability.
Although transitioning to PQC is a complex undertaking, it is already underway. National Security Memorandum 10 (NSM-10) has established a target migration date of 2035 for federal systems to quantum-resistant cryptographic methods. However, systems vulnerable to 'save now, decrypt later' attacks, such as government communications or secure financial transactions, may need to implement PQC earlier due to heightened risk profiles. The NIST advises prioritizing quantum-resistant key-establishment schemes in protocols like TLS and IKE, which underpin secure internet communications.
The PQC evolution involves not just updating cryptographic standards but also ensuring compatibility with existing systems. Given the vast array of encryption applications across industries, this is an challenging task. Nevertheless, it is essential for preserving trust in our interconnected, digital world. As NIST collaborates with academia, industry, and governments, the widespread adoption of PQC will be a crucial step in future-proofing the internet.
Civilizational Evolution
There's no doubt that our digital lives will need to evolve to become quantum-resistant, protocol by protocol. Mistakes and hacks are inevitable during this transition, especially given the numerous encryption protocols in use. Since Bitcoin has become an essential tool for global finance, there's little doubt it will be one of the first to adapt.
The transition to a post-quantum world will be less than graceful, with its fair share of turbulence and fear. Nevertheless, it will also be an exhilarating period, marking the beginning of a new era. Following decades of research and numerous science fiction novels painting a vision of a post-quantum era, we are now on the cusp of this reality. Quantum computing holds the potential to revolutionize fields ranging from medicine to advanced materials, opening up possibilities and innovations we cannot even imagine today – and we are all here for it.
The development of more sophisticated cryptographic algorithms could be a consequence of the advent of quantum computing, as it may challenge the current mathematical concepts used in encryption and necessitate a shift towards quantum-compatible algorithms. Though Google's Willow quantum computer can perform calculations with 105 qubits, it's still far from deciphering bitcoin's encryption, which would require significantly more qubits, potentially leading to a revision of bitcoin's protocol within the next few years.
