The New York Yankees' Decision to Invest in Paul Goldschmidt is Likely to Show Intelligence
The New York Yankees' Decision to Invest in Paul Goldschmidt is Likely to Show Intelligence
Just like every year, the New York Yankees have been creating waves during this offseason. Regrettably for Yankees fans, the buzz is more about the players they've missed out on (such as Juan Soto, who ventured over to the Mets) than the ones they've managed to get (like Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams, obtained through trades with the Cubs and Brewers, and Max Fried, signed as a free agent from the Braves).
Sort of unexpectedly, a flurry of first basemen movement took place in late 2024. Notable free agents Christian Walker and Carlos Santana joined forces with the Astros and Guardians, respectively, while Josh Naylor was dealt to the Diamondbacks. Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell also found new homes in Washington. The ensuing "musical chairs" game forced struggling teams looking for a player beneath Pete Alonso's price point into action. And the Yankees brought in their newest addition, Paul Goldschmidt, for a single year at $12.5 million.
This move seemed a bit under-the-radar. Normally, every move the Yankees make makes quite a stir, and this underrated yet accomplished player has been a star for years on end.
Goldschmidt's actual 2024 performance - a .245/.302/.414 slash line, yielding a 1.1 WAR - is why this avoided attention. However, there are ways to assess his true ability beyond these basic stats, and we can use them to get a more accurate read.
Goldschmidt faced significant misfortune in terms of fly balls and liners in 2024. His actual Unadjusted Fly Ball and Line Drive Contact Scores of 135 and 82 were far lower than his adjusted marks of 169 and 102. He "should have" hit .261/.314/.466 last season, a significant drop from previous career norms, but still a solid 113 "Tru" Production+, which was better than his 100 wRC+.
The hitter-friendly environment at Busch Stadium contributed to this decline, but so did plain bad luck.
Alas, I must inform Yankee fans that Goldschmidt's new ballpark isn't going to provide him with a significant boost. Yankee Stadium is a decent home run park, especially in the outfield, but overall, it dilutes run-scoring to about the same extent as Busch Stadium. Goldschmidt tends to drive the ball deep, which is particularly expansive in New York.
To sum up, Paul Goldschmidt is still an above-average hitter and roughly average for his position. He shows up day in and day out, and continues to bring defensive and baserunning value to the table, even at the age of 37. Did you know that he is a career 82.8% base stealer (169 for 204), including a remarkable 91.7% (22 for 24) in the last two seasons? That's impressive.
His decline phase has begun, though. How do we know? His K/BB profile has degraded steadily since 2021. Although his 2024 average fly ball authority (95.0 mph) tied for his second-highest of his career, his average liner (94.5 mph) and grounder (86.9 mph) authority were both below career norms. When your average fly ball exit speed is higher than your average liner exit speed, it's not a good sign. It means you're focusing too much on power.
Goldschmidt isn't done yet by any means. He's still hitting the ball well to all fields, and could generate a late career power surge by sacrificing contact for power. Look at it this way - once you abandon the approach that led to your success and focus solely on driving the ball, your time is limited. Goldschmidt still has this approach in reserve.
He also merits consideration in historical perspective at this point in his career. According to Baseball Reference, he has earned 62.8 WAR, while Fangraphs rates him at 56.5. This puts him right on the cusp of Hall of Fame status, or slightly above it.
I've ranked all modern hitters (since 1901) based on their combined standard deviations above league average for regulars in on-base and slugging percentage, ignoring park factors and position adjustments. Goldschmidt ranks as the #57 offensive player of all time as a result of this measure, despite a slight decline in 2024. He has 35.49 combined standard deviations above average, which places him between Joe Morgan (35.71) and Hank Greenberg (35.02), two clear Hall of Famers. Eddie Mathews is #59, Vladimir Guerrero is #60 - the picture is beginning to take shape.
You don't pay free agents for past performance – you pay them based on their future potential. But Goldschmidt genuinely warrants a one-year, $12.5 million investment at this stage of his career. I'm a little torn on the moves the Yankees have made this offseason – I'm fine with allowing Soto to walk at that price, positive about the trade for Devin Williams with the Brewers, and somewhat indifferent about the Fried deal. But I'm a fan of this one. The floor is quite high, and the ceiling is even better than you might think. Now, it's time to address the remaining openings......
- Despite Goldschmidt's decline in statistics in 2024, the New York Mets' Pete Alonso remains a more expensive option for teams seeking a first baseman.
- The Cleveland Guardians' acquisition of Carlos Santana, along with Christian Walker joining the Astros, created a shakeup in the first base market, potentially opening opportunities for lesser-known players.
- Despite the Yankees bringing in Paul Goldschmidt for a budget-friendly deal, the team is still linked with Juan Soto, who continues to be a subject of interest following his move to the Mets.
- In contrast to the Yankees and Mets, the St. Louis Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt has a solid defensive and baserunning record, making him a valuable asset even in later stages of his career.
- The New York Yankees, who have typically attracted attention with their offseason moves, could benefit from Goldscheidt's impact, especially considering his impressive career statistics and potential for a late-career power surge.