Glimpse into Business Confidence in Romania's Economy for 2025
The 2025 Geopolitical Landscape Exceeds Anticipations: Perspectives of the Romanian Business Community on H1 2025's Market Conditions. Commencement of the 12th CONFIDEX Conference.
Get the lowdown on the current state of business confidence in Romania by taking part in the CONFIDEX 12 survey before March 28! This long-running study, now in its 12th edition, is an annual poll of Romanian business leaders and managers, shedding light on their perceptions of the economy for the past five years.
The private equity funds ROCA, Agista, and CITR, known for their expertise in the insolvency and restructuring market in Romania, are backing this year's study.
Last year, the CONFIDEX confidence index hovered around 52 in both the second half of 2024 and the first semester of 2025. However, the forthcoming year brings unforeseen elements on the global stage that might influence decision-making and caution in Romania's business sector. These elements include geopolitical conflicts, as well as the aftermath of the reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, strategic investments, and the conclusion of presidential elections.
According to Andrei Cionca, co-founder of ROCA and Agista, as well as the initiator of the CONFIDEX study, "The CONFIDEX study has evolved beyond being just an indicator of economic confidence. It now mirrors the realities faced by Romanian entrepreneurs and business leaders. Through the collective insights of over 4,000 participants, we strive to build a robust economy that thrives on optimism and resilience."
At the end of 2024, there was a noticeable sense of unease regarding the future of the domestic economy and individual companies, despite a slower economic growth as compared to previous years.
Anticipation vs. Truth: Where Opportunities Lie
In the latter half of 2024, only 29% of participating managers expressed optimism about the prospects of the Romanian economy, a decline from the 34% recorded in the previous semester. However, official data suggests a different reality.
For example, although 56% of managers forecasted an increase in inflation in H2 2024, it decreased compared to the previous year, falling to 5.1% from 7%. Despite Romania having the highest inflation rate compared to other EU countries (the average inflation rate being 2.7%), rising prices have an impact on various aspects of business, including production costs, operational expenses, and sales volumes.
Priorities expressed by the business environment during the second half of 2024 included sales growth, employee retention, strengthening customer relations, and securing financing. However, despite 1 in 3 managers predicting a decline in Romania's GDP, the GDP actually reached 1.7 trillion lei in 2024, a record high compared to the previous year. This remarkable growth began a decade ago, with Romania's GDP nearly doubling from 899 billion lei in 2014.
The unemployment rate slightly increased at the start of 2025, as anticipated by 49% of business leaders in H2 2024. Despite this, the increase is negligible and could potentially lead to a more balanced labor market for managers and entrepreneurs, as well as lower salary hikes.
The CONFIDEX index plummeted to its lowest point during the pandemic period but started to recover, reaching the highest level in the last three years (52.5) in the first half of last year and maintaining a similar value in H2 2024 (52).
Take part in the CONFIDEX 12th Edition Survey to voice your opinion on Romania's economy: CONFIDEX Study: A Snapshot of Confidence in the Romanian Economy.
Please note that this piece is a social foreshadowing of the original article, written in an informal, engaging style. It integrates some enrichment insights, but the overall focus remains on the base article. The piece is structured for better readability and uses varied sentence structures without losing the original message.
- The annual CONFIDEX study, currently in its 12th edition, gathers the perspectives of Romanian business leaders and managers to provide insights into their perceptions of the country's economy for the next few years.
- In the CONFIDEX 12 survey, investors are urged to share their views on Romania's economy, a process that can help shape the country's general-news landscape and influence political and business decisions.
- Over the past five years, the CONFIDEX confidence index has been a key indicator of economic confidence, as well as mirroring the realities faced by Romanian entrepreneurs and business leaders.
- Although Romanian business leaders had shown signs of uncertainty about the domestic economy and individual companies towards the end of 2024, official data indicates a positive turnaround, with the GDP reaching a record high of 1.7 trillion lei.
- As the economy continues to evolve and face challenges like geopolitical conflicts, reconstruction efforts, and political elections, it's crucial for business leaders and investors to participate in surveys like the CONFIDEX 12, providing valuable insights that can contribute to Romania's restructuring and growth in the coming years.
