Skyrocketing expenses projected for the U.S. nuclear force: $946 billion anticipated by 2034.
Revamped Report:
Donald Trump's promised defense budget boost of $1 trillion in fiscal 2026 might face a roadblock due to skyrocketing costs associated with modernizing and operating America's nuclear forces. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has recently revised the projected costs, now estimating a whopping $946 billion through 2034—25% higher than the previous estimate.
The hike isn't just about inflation. It stems from hefty blowouts in various programs, escalating modernization expenses, and ballooning costs within the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development program. This new ICBM is intended to replace the Trident III, the backbone of the U.S.-based ICBM force.
Critics pointed out that this astronomical increase in costs for the world's second biggest nuclear arsenal would put severe pressure on Trump's plans. The president's ambitions require a budget of one trillion dollars in 2026; however, with these rising costs, achieving such a figure may prove challenging.
These nuclear weapon expenditures are partitioned between the Pentagon and the Department of Energy, the latter outfitted with the responsibility of safeguarding the American arsenal. As Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, an advocacy group, remarks, "The costs of the existing nuclear modernization program are soaring beyond any expectations we ever had."
As an aside, it’s worth mentioning that the CBO warns Congress will need to grapple with the strategically crucial decision of what nuclear forces the United States should field in the future, and consequently, the extent to which it will modernize. Furthermore, neither Washington nor Moscow has so far engaged in arms control talks, with the last pact regulating U.S. and Russian strategic forces nearing its expiration in under a year.
Trump has publicly expressed distaste for constructing new American nuclear weapons, while criticizing the hefty expenses associated with maintaining the arsenal. However, he has yet to reveal his nuclear weapons strategy or appoint senior officials charged with its execution. Interestingly, Trump expressed interest in negotiating arms control pacts with both Moscow and Beijing—parties associated with expanding their nuclear arsenals, albeit smaller in comparison to those of the U.S. and Russia.
In essence, the Pentagon, along with the Department of Energy, plans to shell out approximately $946 billion for operating and modernizing U.S. strategic and tactical nuclear forces while procuring state-of-the-art bombers, submarines, and ICBMs by 2034. This equates to an average of $95 billion annually, with the increase in costs primarily attributable to enhanced programs such as developing and deploying the Sentinel ICBM, updating the Pentagon's nuclear command infrastructure, improving communication and early-warning systems, and modernizing the Department of Energy's production facilities. Since this latest estimate ranges until 2034, it spans two additional years compared to the previous one, further contributing to the overall increase.
The increased costs for modernizing and operating America's nuclear forces, estimated at $946 billion through 2034, pose a challenge for Donald Trump's proposed defense budget boost of $1 trillion in fiscal 2026, as they are coupled with expenditures in both the Pentagon and the Department of Energy, particularly in financing advanced programs such as the Sentinel ICBM development and updating nuclear command infrastructure, which fall under the 'defense' and 'finance' sectors of the industry. The escalating expenses in the energy sector also involve the modernization of production facilities for nuclear weapons.
