Romania's public debt reached an approximate 56.6% of its GDP by the end of April.
### Title: Romania's Public Debt Projections for 2025 and Beyond
Romania's public debt continues to rise, with the debt-to-GDP ratio advancing by 1.9 percentage points to 56.6% at the end of April, according to official data. This increase was accompanied by a record rise of RON 14.5 billion (EUR 2.9 billion) in April, bringing the total public debt to RON 1.013 billion (EUR 203.5 billion).
UniCredit bank forecasts a steep rise in public debt, reaching 62.1% of GDP by the end of 2025, up from 54.8% in 2024. Independent analysts, including Moody's, expect Romania's indebtedness to exceed the 60% threshold soon. Moody's forecasts that Romania's public debt will continue to rise, reaching 62.6% of GDP by the end of 2026.
The government is targeting a 2025 deficit of "around 8% of GDP" in cash terms, according to Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. This target is in line with the European Commission's revised Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) consolidation trajectory, which sketches a return to a deficit of 6.4% of GDP in 2026.
Interestingly, the public deficit in January-April was incompletely covered by the rise in public debt, with the deficit of RON 56 billion only partially offset by the RON 49.2 billion increase in public debt.
The composition of Romania's public debt is also noteworthy. At the end of April, the public debt denominated in euros accounted for 43.9%, up from 41% at the end of 2024. This increase is due in part to the two FX bond issues in January and April. The Treasury issued EUR 2.75 billion FX bonds at the end of March, but the registration was in April.
Contrarily, the public debt denominated in local currency decreased to 46.5% at the end of April, down from 48.5% at the end of 2024.
Despite the fiscal consolidation efforts, the pressure on public borrowing and indebtedness is expected to continue. The debt-to-GDP ratio is still expected to exceed 60% in the near future.
However, detailed forecasts from independent analysts outside of Moody's regarding the public debt-to-GDP ratio for Romania in 2025 and 2026 are not explicitly stated in the available information. Other analysts, such as ING Bank and Standard & Poor's, focus more on the budget deficit and current account deficit rather than providing specific public debt-to-GDP ratio forecasts.
Businesses and the finance sector are closely monitoring Romania's public debt situation, as it is projected to reach 62.1% of GDP by the end of 2025, according to UniCredit bank's forecast. Independent analysts, including Moody's, anticipate Romania's indebtedness to exceed the 60% threshold soon.
