Projected solely on Banque de France's estimations, the GDP is anticipated to show signs of expansion during the third quarter of 2025.
The French economy is expected to grow by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the Bank of France's latest projections. This growth is largely attributed to the robust performance of the commercial services sector, which includes accommodation, catering, and business services [1][3].
Despite the positive outlook for the service sector, the manufacturing industry has experienced a slowdown during the third quarter. This slowdown is primarily due to headwinds from political instability and external trade threats, particularly from the United States, which have weighed on industrial output and exports [1].
In addition, the energy sector continues to face a decline. This decline is driven by structural shifts including changes in energy demand and ongoing adjustments in energy markets, as well as evolving energy policies and market corrections [1].
The commercial services sector, which has seen a boost in activity during the third quarter, is expected to continue supporting overall service sector growth, underpinning steady economic expansion amid a broader context of mixed sectoral performances [1][3].
The Bank of France's projections do not indicate any major challenges or risks to the French economy in the third quarter. However, the slowdown in the manufacturing industry and the continued decline in the energy sector could potentially pose risks to the economy in future quarters [1].
| Sector | Contribution to Q3 GDP Growth | Key Factors | |---------------------------|------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Commercial Services (Accommodation, Catering, Business Services) | Positive — supporting service sector growth | Robust activity in services; demand stabilization | | Manufacturing | Slowed growth | Political instability, US trade threats | | Energy | Continued decline | Structural market changes, shifting demand patterns |
The Bank of France shared these forecasts in its monthly business survey, which was released on Monday, August 11 [1][3]. The bank did not provide GDP growth projections for any quarters beyond the third quarter in this report. However, the slowdown in the manufacturing industry and the continued decline in the energy sector could potentially affect future GDP growth rates.
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