Oil prices remain relatively stable despite a recent industry report suggesting a decrease in US demand for petroleum products.
In a recent development, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has forecasted that global oil demand will grow by around 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, reaching an average consumption of approximately 106.52 million bpd. This growth is attributed to stronger economic performance in key regions such as OECD America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
In contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. crude oil production will decline somewhat in 2026, averaging around 13.3 million bpd, down from a peak near 13.6 million bpd in December 2025. The decline is due to falling oil prices, expected to drop to around $50 per barrel early in 2026, which will lead producers to reduce drilling and well completion activities.
The OPEC outlook for 2026 also includes an increased "call on OPEC+ crude" (the amount OPEC+ needs to supply) to about 43.1 million bpd, slightly higher than previous forecasts. This indicates that the global demand for oil is expected to outpace production from OPEC and its allies.
Meanwhile, the U.S. President, Donald Trump, and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday. The potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and the easing of sanctions on Russian supply may be reconsidered by investors. However, the White House has tempered expectations for a quick Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal.
In the domestic market, analysts expect the EIA report to show crude inventories fell by about 300,000 barrels last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 3 cents to $63.14, while Brent crude futures gained 3 cents to 66.15 a barrel at 0102 GMT.
It's important to note that both OPEC and the EIA expect increased production this year, but the U.S. is expected to be the exception. Other regions will likely increase oil and natural gas production.
Here's a summary of the key points:
| Aspect | OPEC Outlook 2026 | U.S. EIA Outlook 2026 | |--------------------------|--------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | Global Oil Demand | +1.38 million bpd growth, reaching ~106.52 million bpd | N/A (focuses on U.S. production and prices) | | OPEC+ Production Need| Increased to 43.1 million bpd | N/A | | U.S. Crude Production| N/A | Decline to 13.3 million bpd from peak 13.6 million bpd in late 2025 | | Price Outlook | Not explicitly provided | Brent crude expected to average ~$50/b in early 2026, down from ~$71/b in mid-2025 | | Drivers | Stronger economic growth globally | Lower prices leading to reduced drilling |
In conclusion, while global oil demand is expected to grow moderately in 2026, U.S. crude production is anticipated to decrease due to lower price incentives, reflecting differing dynamics between global demand and U.S. supply.
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