Live Cattle Futures: Market Upcoming and Threats
Livestock Prices Inching Up at Noon due to Potential Import Restrictions
The live cattle futures market has seen some action these days. As of Monday, prices are climbing with a $1.625 increase for Live Cattle Futures for August. The bulls are charging, and bears are retreating significantly [1]. Last week, cash trade was a bit sluggish with the South at $212-213 and the North reaching up to $217-218. However, feeder cattle futures have also gained, with the nearbys seeing a jump of 50 cents to $1.45 [2].
The USDA Secretary has sent a stern letter to Mexico, threatening to restrict live animal imports if they don't take action to curb the New World Screwworm [3]. If not addressed by April 30, imports could be restricted, causing potential turbulence for the market.
Managed money has been adding contracts to their net long, increasing to 120,460 contracts in live cattle futures and options, and 28,061 contracts in feeder cattle [4]. The Chc/Sel widened to $17.77, with Choice boxes up $5.14 to $341.62/cwt, and Select boxes rising $3.74 to $323.85 [4]. Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 555,000 head last week, 21,000 head below the week prior and 58,723 head below the same week last year [4].
As of April 25, Live Cattle prices stand at:
- Apr 25 Live Cattle: $215.875, up $1.625
- Jun 25 Live Cattle: $209.725, up $1.475
- Aug 25 Live Cattle: $205.275, up $1.175
- May 25 Feeder Cattle: $291.975, up $1.450
- Aug 25 Feeder Cattle: $294.875, up $0.575
- Sep 25 Feeder Cattle: $294.050, up $0.500
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[1] - Live cattle futures have seen fluctuations, reaching new highs as cash trade supports higher prices.[2] - Tight supplies and strong demand are fueling the market, despite some volatility and global trade concerns.[3] - The New World Screwworm poses a threat to live animal imports, as it can lead to import restrictions and biosecurity measures that could impact prices.[4] - Managed money has been aggressively adding contracts to their net long, supporting the increasing prices in live cattle futures.[5] - Enhanced biosecurity measures could increase production costs and be passed on to consumers or influence futures pricing.[6] - Our website provides in-depth analysis for various commodities like live cattle, helping investors make informed decisions.
- If the New World Screwworm situation isn't addressed by April 30, there could be potential turbulence in the live cattle futures market due to possible import restrictions from Mexico [3].
- Managed money has been actively adding contracts to their net long, which, along with the increasing numbers seen in the cash trade, has been supporting the rising prices in live cattle futures [4].
- With the USDA estimating federally inspected cattle slaughter for last week at 555,000 head, there is a concern that enhanced biosecurity measures due to the New World Screwworm could increase production costs, which may influence both futures pricing and consumer costs [4].
