June's inflation rate in Romania breakthroughs at 5.7%, marking a steep incline from the previous month's 5.45% figure.
Romania's inflation rate has been on an upward trajectory over the past few months. In April 2025, the rate stood at 4.85%, climbing to 5.45% in May and further to approximately 5.7% in June[1][3][4]. The surge can be attributed to a rise in food prices, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% in June, and a hike in service costs, including utilities and medical services[3][4].
As we approach the end of 2025, inflation projections remain high. According to the ING forecast, year-end inflation is expected to reach 7.9% due to anticipated fiscal shocks[2]. Meanwhile, the Erste Group has revised its year-end inflation forecast to 7.5%, up from a previous estimate of 5.6%[3].
Several factors pose risks of further inflationary pressures. One such factor is the anticipated 2% increase in the standard VAT rate to 21% and the unification of reduced VAT rates, effective from August 2025[4]. Additionally, the liberalization of electricity prices, set to take effect in July 2025, is expected to increase non-food prices, contributing to inflation[3]. Despite a food price cap scheme, food inflation remains high, and any increase in global food prices could further exacerbate domestic inflation[3].
These factors suggest that Romania may face a generalized increase in prices, potentially leading to higher inflation rates throughout the rest of 2025. In response to persistent inflation pressures, the National Bank of Romania is expected to maintain its policy rate at 6.50%[2].
The monthly inflation rate for June 2025, compared to May 2025, is a modest 0.45%[5]. However, the prices of essential goods have seen significant increases. For instance, cow's milk prices increased by 1% in June 2025 compared to May 2025[6]. Fresh fruits prices spiked by 11% in June 2025 compared to May 2025, and fruits and fruit preserves became more expensive by 25.58% compared to June 2024[7]. Bread prices also rose by 0.5% in the same period[6].
The consensus for inflation in 2025 is around 7.5%, but Adrian Codirlaşu, president of the CFA Romania association of financial analysts, predicts inflation to be closer to 8%[8]. These projections underscore the need for careful economic management and strategic policy responses to mitigate the impact of inflation on consumers and businesses in Romania.
Finance analysts, such as Adrian Codirlaşu, the president of CFA Romania association, project that Romania's inflation rate will potentially exceed the consensus of 7.5%, approaching 8%. This necessitates cautious economic management and strategic policy responses to mitigate the financial impacts on consumers and businesses in Romania.
