Japan's projected rice consumption for the next year, from now until June, is predicted to reach a maximum of 7.1 million tons.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) of Japan has revised its staple rice demand projections for the year through June 2026, taking into account factors such as increasing demand from foreign tourists and declining yields of polished rice caused by rising heat stress.
According to the new calculation method, the demand for staple news in Japan for the year through June 2026 is expected to be between 6.97 and 7.11 million tons, a slight decrease or no change compared to the previous year's real demand.
Despite the anticipated lower demand, the private sector's rice inventory is set to grow significantly. The sector's inventory is projected to increase up to 1.5-fold year on year to 2.29 million tons as of June 31, 2026. This represents a substantial increase compared to the previous year.
The need for a new calculation method arose as the initial estimate and actual demand showed a wide difference a year earlier. The panel, which is part of the MAFF, has adopted this new method to ensure that their estimate reflects a broader range of factors affecting staple news demand.
The forecast for 2025 staple rice production surpasses the initial estimate for 2024. The new projection for 2025 staple rice production is between 7.28 and 7.45 million tons, which is higher than the initial estimate of 6.69 million tons for 2024. This suggests a potential surplus in production compared to the estimated demand for the same period.
To further refine the demand projection for the year through June 2026, the ministry plans to survey the amount of rice distributed as a thank-you gift under the 'hometown tax' donation program. This will help in understanding the actual consumption patterns and adjust the demand projection accordingly.
In light of these changes, the private sector is expected to have a substantial rice inventory by the end of June 2026, while the demand for staple news in Japan may remain stable or slightly decrease compared to the previous year. The MAFF's food council subgroup has made this key one-year estimate later than scheduled due to the need to calculate using a new formula.
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