Industry Perspectives and Public Opinions: Insights Gleaned from CII's 128th Business Opportunities Assessment
The Indian economy is demonstrating resilience in the face of global uncertainties, as indicated by the latest CII Business Confidence Index (CII-BCI) survey. The index rose to 68.2 in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, signifying good overall economic health and optimism among businesses.
The survey, conducted by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in September 2024, featured responses from 200 firms across various sectors. Nearly 49% of these firms project an increase in employment due to improvements within their companies, while only a minimal 7% expect a decline in workforce numbers.
The survey also highlighted several growth drivers for the current fiscal year. Improved consumption patterns, favourable monsoon conditions, robust kharif crop sowing, increased private investments, moderate inflation, and strong corporate and banking balance sheets are among the factors contributing to the positive outlook.
However, the survey also revealed a mix of concerns for the near future. Among top business concerns, 24% of respondents cite protracted geopolitical tensions, 18% highlight rising global commodity prices, and 17% are concerned about decreasing external demand. Additional concerns include fluctuating consumption patterns, food price volatility, and financial market instability.
In terms of future expectations, 41% of the respondents feel that their domestic investments would see an increase in the second quarter of the current fiscal, while 40% of the respondents also feel that their investment plan will see no changes in the international arena.
While there is a mixed response in terms of future expectation of input costs such as electricity, fuel, wages, and cost of credit, the expectations of profits earned are high. 45% of the respondents believe that their bottom-line will improve in the quarter.
The survey also revealed that 35% of the respondents feel that the cost of raw materials will remain unchanged, while 34% believe that the costs will increase.
The 128th Business Outlook Survey by CII was conducted in September 2024, offering a comprehensive snapshot of industry expectations and sentiments for the near future. Meanwhile, the 128th Business Outlook Survey in September 2024 was conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, providing a similar insight into the US economy.
Notably, increased private investments are among the growth drivers for the current fiscal year, underscoring the resilience of the Indian economy amid global uncertainties. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has seen an increase in Q1 of FY24-25, further supporting this trend.
In conclusion, the CII Business Confidence Index survey provides a positive outlook for the Indian economy, with many firms expecting growth and increased employment opportunities. However, it also highlights a number of challenges that need to be addressed to maintain this momentum.
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