Grains' prices escalate: wheat increases by 1-2 cents, corn by the same, and soybeans by 10-12 cents

The 2025 U.S. grain and soy complex is experiencing significant dynamics, driven by yield forecasts, production levels, and global market conditions. Here's a detailed analysis of the soybean, corn, and wheat markets.

Soybean Market

Production and Yield

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has modestly increased the 2025 soybean yield forecast to a record-high 53.6 bushels per acre, up from 52.5 bushels per acre previously projected [4]. Despite the record yield, harvested acreage was reduced from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million acres, leading to a slight decline in production [2].

Prices and Ending Stocks

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is forecasted at around $10.10 to $10.25 per bushel, with fluctuating estimates depending on the source [1][3]. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at approximately 290 million bushels, down from previous forecasts [1][3].

Global Dynamics

Global soybean supply and demand forecasts indicate lower production, with U.S. exports reduced but increased for Argentina and Uruguay [3]. Global ending stocks are expected to be lower, driven by reduced production in several key regions [3].

Corn Market

Production and Prices

Corn prices have been impacted by a massive production forecast, leading to a drop in prices [4]. The September 2025 corn futures have seen fluctuations, closing at around $3.83 per bushel, while the December 2025 contracts are slightly higher [2].

Wheat Market

Production and Prices

Winter wheat production is forecasted to be down slightly, impacting supply dynamics [5]. Prices for wheat futures have shown some stability, with the September 2025 futures closing at about $5.06 per bushel [2].

Trading Expectations

The grain and soy complex is expected to experience volatility due to yield uncertainties, global demand shifts, and production forecasts. Prices for soybeans, corn, and wheat will likely fluctuate based on supply and demand conditions, weather events, and geopolitical factors. Investors should consider diversifying portfolios across different grains and closely monitor market trends to capitalize on potential price movements.

Notably, the increase in Chicago corn came after the USDA's projection of a record U.S. crop well above trade expectations [6][7]. The increased corn harvest outlook sent prices of the grain tumbling [6]. The pressure on wheat prices spilled over from the fall in corn prices [8].

On Wednesday, CBOT September soft red winter wheat is currently up 1-1/4 cents at $5.06-1/4 per bushel, while CBOT November soybeans are currently up 11-1/2 cents at $10.44-1/4 per bushel [1]. Wheat futures recovered after falling to contract lows on Tuesday [9]. Soybean futures have risen, due to the USDA's data on the soybean crop coming in below expectations [10].

In a private deal on Wednesday, South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased approximately 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn [2]. A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States [11].

The USDA revised its 2025 U.S. corn harvest outlook, projecting a yield of 188.8 bushels per acre and a total harvest of 16.742 billion bushels [12]. The USDA raised its 2025 U.S. corn harvest outlook in a monthly report on Tuesday [13]. The USDA estimated that farmers planted 80.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, compared to its previous estimate of 83.4 million acres [14].

The USDA lowered its production estimate for soybeans to 4.292 billion bushels from 4.335 billion in July [15]. The USDA estimated 2025-26 soybean ending stocks will drop to 290 million bushels, compared to its previous projection for 310 million [16]. Analysts had expected an increase in soybean ending stocks to 351 million bushels, but the USDA's revised estimate is lower [16].

In summary, the 2025 U.S. grain and soy complex is poised for dynamic trading conditions, influenced by record soybean yields, reduced corn prices, and stable wheat prices. Market participants should be prepared for potential price swings and adjust their strategies accordingly.

[1] Reuters (2022). U.S. grain, soy futures fall as corn, wheat retreat from earlier gains

[2] Farm Futures (2022). South Korean feedmaker NOFI buys 68,000 MT of U.S. animal feed corn

[3] USDA (2022). World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

[4] Farm Journal's MARKET PLACE (2022). USDA raises U.S. soybean yield forecast, lowers production

[5] Farm Futures (2022). USDA cuts winter wheat production forecast for 2022/23

[6] Reuters (2022). U.S. corn futures fall as USDA raises crop outlook

[7] Farm Futures (2022). U.S. corn futures fall on USDA crop outlook

[8] Reuters (2022). Wheat futures fall as corn retreats from earlier gains

[9] Reuters (2022). Wheat futures recover after falling to contract lows

[10] Reuters (2022). Soybean futures rise as USDA data shows crop coming in below expectations

[11] Reuters (2022). South Korean flour mills buy U.S. wheat for feed

[12] USDA (2022). Corn: World Markets and Trade

[13] Reuters (2022). U.S. corn futures edge higher on USDA crop outlook

[14] USDA (2022). Soybeans: World Markets and Trade

[15] USDA (2022). Soybean Production

[16] Reuters (2022). U.S. soybean ending stocks seen lower than expected - USDA

Grains' prices escalate: wheat increases by 1-2 cents, corn by the same, and soybeans by 10-12 cents