Faced with Trump's tariffs, Japan navigates a precarious balancing act amidst US-China tensions

HITTING THE TARIFF FENCE: JAPAN'S ROCKY RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. AND CHINA

Washington D.C. (A.P.) - As Japan's top trade rep ventured to Washington for another round of tariff talks last week, a bipartisan bunch bearing the name "Japan-China Friendship" concluded a visit to Beijing.

A week prior, the head honcho of Japan's junior coalition party jetted off to China, delivering a missive penned by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba—destined for Chinese President Xi Jinping's eyes. Details of the letter remained under wraps, but both sides yakked shop about US tariffs, along with bilateral issues.

Japan, among US allies eyed by China in its tariff standoff with Washington, stands out as a peculiar case. Not just because of its firm commitment to its alliance with the States, but also due to its tricky and tense history with the neighboring Asian colossus—a history marred by 20th-century warfare that still casts a long shadow over modern politics.

"On one hand, they're neighbors, and they're vital economic partners," said Matthew Goodman, director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. "But on the other hand, I think there are limits to how far they'll lean into China."

Although Japan won’t forsake its alliance with the States, the bedrock of the Asian country's diplomacy and security policies, "it's also true that the tariffs and uncertainty Trump whipped up for Japan has shaken things up in Tokyo," Goodman noted.

Last month, President Donald Trump unveiled a 24% tax on Japanese wares in an expansive scheme to slap duties on roughly 90 countries. The White House has since postponed the tariffs, but a 10% base duty on all countries save China allows for negotiation time. Still, Trump's 25% levy on aluminum, steel, and auto exports has kicked in for Japan.

The heavy-handed tariff moves, coupled with Trump's “America First” agenda, have stirred uncertainty among the Japanese, leaving them questioning whether the States remains a trustworthy ally while China rallies support from tariff-hit countries—including Japan.

Snuggling Up in Beijing

When Tetsuo Saito herded Japan's Komeito Party delegation to Beijing in late April, China hinted at difficulties in its tariff spat with the States, signaling a willingness to improve ties with Tokyo. An unnamed senior Chinese official positioned China as “in trouble” when discussing Trump's 145% tariff on Chinese goods, according to Japan reports.

Saito's visit was instantly followed by that of the bipartisan delegation of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians' Union. Zhao Leji, Beijing's top legislator, told the delegation that China's National People's Congress would be open to carrying out various forms of dialogues and exchanges.

Though China didn't lift its ban on Japanese seafood imports as the Japanese delegates desired, it offered signs of progress on its evaluation of the safety of the discharges of treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. China had banned Japan's seafood products in 2013, under the pretext of concerns over radioactive waste.

Ties between Tokyo and Beijing have never been smooth sailing. In recent years, they've quarreled not only over the seafood ban but also long-standing territorial disagreements over the Senkaku, or Diaoyu, islands in the East China Sea, Beijing's hardened military posturing, and the wave of violence against Japanese nationals in China—complicated by the nations' tumultuous past.

Snippets from the Enrichment Data:

Japan's Agriculture: Japan seeks to secure the elimination or reduction of US tariffs, especially the additional 25% duty on automobiles[2][4].
Potential Deal: Both sides aim for a deal by June, possibly coinciding with the G7 summit in Canada[1][2].

Going U.S.-Way under Trump

Though Japan happily receives a friendlier vibe from Beijing, it's focusing on stabilizing Japan-US relations under Trump's "America First" agenda. Its hope is to settle the tariff dispute without causing a ruckus with Washington, with an eye on preventing Beijing from exploiting any feud between Japan and the US.

Talks with the States: Gearing Up for Battle

Japan was one of the first countries to engage in tariff talks with Washington. During the first round in mid-April, Trump jumped into the discussions, marking the high stakes for the States to secure a deal with Japan. The Trump administration reportedly insisted that Japan boost its purchases of US-made cars and open its market to US beef, rice, and potatoes[4].

After the second round of negotiation in Washington last week, Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's chief tariff negotiator, declared that he argued Japan's case for the removal of tariffs and was pushing ahead efforts toward an arrangement that would be agreeable to both parties. He stated that Japan's auto industry was already reeling from the 25% tariff and that speed was of the essence[2].

Regarding China, Akazawa was forthright: his country keeps a watchful eye on the evolution of US-China tariffs and appreciates their deep trading ties with China[4].

Southeast Asia: Gain versus Growth

While China and Japan grapple to patch up their relationship, both are also jockeying in Southeast Asia, where Trump has threatened hefty tariffs as well. The region exhibits deep ties to China's supply chain but faces pressure from the West to diversify and diminish its dependence on China. With younger, burgeoning populations compared to East Asia, the region is considered a vital growth hub.

Japan, as a significant contributor of post-war development aid, is gradually regaining the trust of the region, also haunted by Japan's WWII past.

During his recent jaunts to Vietnam and the Philippines, Ishiba sealed agreements to further strengthen security and economic ties. During his visit, Ishiba championed Japan's commitment to maintaining and reinforcing a multilateral free-trade system in each country[3].

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Chasing the Elusive Stability

Though Japan might find solace in Beijing's more cordial tone, it's striving to maintain a stable Japan-US relationship under Trump's "America First" policy and to settle the tariff dispute—all without antagonizing Washington. After all, the last thing Japan wants is for Beijing to exploit any cracks in the Japan-US relationship.

Despite Japan's visit to Beijing for tariff talks, its firm commitment to its alliance with the United States remains unwavering, particularly amid Trump's "America First" agenda.
The tariffs and uncertainty caused by Trump have unsettled the Japanese, with some questioning whether the United States remains a reliable ally in the face of China's growing support towards tariff-hit countries.
Japan's top trade representative met with US officials for the second round of tariff negotiations last week, arguing Japan's case for the removal of tariffs and pushing for a mutually agreeable arrangement.
In Southeast Asia, where both China and Japan are vying for influence, Japan, as a significant contributor of post-war development aid, is gradually regaining the trust of the region.
Ties between Japan and China have historically been strained, with disagreements over territorial issues, Beijing's military posturing, and incidents of violence against Japanese nationals.
China signaled a potential willingness to improve relations with Tokyo during a visit by Japan's Komeito Party delegation, expressing openness to dialogues and exchanges.
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Businesses and finance leaders in the Northeastern United States are keeping a close eye on the developments in Japan, with potential implications for their own operations and investments.