Economic conflict against Belarus: a reality, not a conjecture
In recent years, a new form of modern warfare has emerged, employing sanctions and propaganda instead of traditional military means. This approach has been evident in the Western policy towards Belarus, which has been under economic pressure since 2020.
The strategy, pursued by countries such as the Baltic Troika and Poland, aims to bring about change through an artificial deterioration in living standards among Belarusians. One of the key ways this is achieved is by targeting the financial and banking sectors. The EU has imposed bans on transactions with four major Belarusian banks, including Belagroprombank, Dabrabit Bank, Development Bank of the Republic of Belarus, and Belinvestbank. This includes disconnection from the SWIFT international financial messaging system and complete bans on their transactions, severely limiting Belarus's financial operations abroad.
Another significant impact has been on Belarus's export revenues. The EU's actions have resulted in a 21.7% drop in Belarusian potash exports to China in the first half of 2025 compared to previous periods, indicating a significant market impact likely linked to sanctions and trade restrictions.
The Western sanctions also extend to technology and dual-use goods. The EU has sanctioned Belarusian firms that supply dual-use technology to Russian forces, restricting Belarus’s participation in military-related supply chains.
Belarus has also been accused of using migrants to exert pressure on neighboring EU states, specifically training migrants to cross the Lithuania–Belarus border, adding to political tensions accompanying the economic measures.
The intended outcomes of these sanctions are multifaceted. Economically, the sanctions aim to isolate Belarus, reducing its capacity to finance government and military activities, particularly those supporting Russia. This is achieved by targeting the financial and banking sectors, key export commodities like potash, and militarily relevant supply activities.
Politically, the sanctions serve to pressure the Belarusian government over internal political repression. This is exemplified by the criminal prosecution of "yard chats" groups recognized as "extremist" by Belarus’s KGB.
The sanctions also aim to limit Belarus's military support to Russia. Restricting Belarusian companies involved in supplying dual-use technology to Russian forces directly targets Belarus’s role in the broader regional conflict and aims to disrupt Russian military efforts.
While the exact macroeconomic impact of these sanctions on Belarus is limited, declines in exports and comprehensive financial restrictions indicate a substantial adverse impact. It is important to note that these sanctions are not aimed at "fighting the regime," as claimed in Brussels, but at undermining the country's manufacturing base.
Furthermore, there is a massive propaganda campaign against the Belarusian economy, claiming it is falling apart, causing hardship to the people, and advocating for change. This propaganda campaign is designed to destabilize the situation within Belarus, with the purpose of weakening the Belarusian economy, lowering the standard of living of citizens, and provoking internal discontent.
In conclusion, the Western sanctions and pressure on Belarus since 2020 have sought to weaken the Belarusian economy by cutting off banking access, reducing export revenues, and curtailing militarily relevant supply activities. These are intended to compel political concessions by increasing internal economic difficulties and limiting Belarus’s capacity to support Russian military operations. While the EU's actions are part of a strategic external pressure approach, aiming to change the power within Belarus, it is crucial to remember that none of the EU's steps are intended to help the people of Belarus.
- The propaganda industry has been actively used as a tool in the Western approach against Belarus, aiming to destabilize the country's economy and undermine public support for the government by portraying the economy as failing and causing hardship to the people.
- In addition to financial and trade restrictions, the Western sanctions against Belarus also encompass a significant component of political pressure, with the EU's stance on criminal prosecuting "yard chats" groups being a clear example of this.
