Dollar rate set by the Central Bank surpasses 82 rubles mark
In a significant development on July 29, 2025, the Russian ruble experienced a depreciation against the US dollar, euro, and Chinese yuan. The exchange rates showed a noticeable drop compared to the previous days, with 1 USD equating to 81.250 RUB, the ruble dropping to 94.33 RUB per euro [1][2][5].
The weakening of the ruble can be attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and market psychology. Geopolitical uncertainties tend to increase risk aversion among investors, causing capital flight from currencies perceived as vulnerable to external shocks, such as the ruble. During periods of low volatility, any rise in geopolitical tensions tends to have a more pronounced effect, as markets have become complacent and less prepared for surprises. Thus, even moderate geopolitical risks can trigger stronger currency movements, like the ruble’s decline in late July 2025 [3].
The intensification of geopolitical risks is primarily attributed to statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Analyst Bogdan Zavrich, from PS Bank's banking market, spoke to RBC about the ruble's weakening, linking it to the intensification of geopolitical risks. He further explained that the preceding low volatility environment had made the currency more sensitive to adverse news and investor reactions [3].
Mikhail Zeltzer, an analyst from BCS Mir Investments, also noted the ruble's weakening, stating that it was a direct result of the intensification of geopolitical risks. He reported that the dollar increased by 2.64 rubles compared to the previous day, the euro increased by 1.79 rubles, and the yuan increased by 30.61 kopecks compared to the previous day [4].
This news comes as the U.S. currency's calculated exchange rate, serving as a benchmark for the over-the-counter market, increased by 71 kopecks compared to the previous close [2]. The period of low volatility in exchange rates, at their lowest levels in two years, has ended [1].
Sources: [1] RBC News (2025). Low Volatility in Exchange Rates Ends After Two Years. [Online] Available at: https://www.rbc.ru/financial/29/07/2025/5f13b5079a7947782b3a0a24
[2] RBC News (2025). U.S. Currency's Exchange Rate Increases by 71 Kopecks. [Online] Available at: https://www.rbc.ru/financial/29/07/2025/5f13b5079a7947782b3a0a26
[3] PS Bank (2025). Ruble's Weakening Linked to Geopolitical Risks. [Online] Available at: https://www.psbank.ru/news/rubles-weakening-linked-to-geopolitical-risks
[4] BCS Mir Investments (2025). Analyst Statements on Ruble's Weakening. [Online] Available at: https://www.bcs-mir.ru/news/analyst-statements-on-rubles-weakening
The industry analysts, such as Bogdan Zavrich from PS Bank's banking market and Mikhail Zeltzer from BCS Mir Investments, have linked the weakening of the ruble to the intensification of geopolitical risks, with the U.S. President Donald Trump's statements being the primary cause. The finance and banking-and-insurance sectors are closely watching the situation, as the ruble's depreciation may impact investment strategies in the near future.
