Disrupted Aerial Zone: Friendly Misfires and Adversarial Drones Induce Turmoil
Last week saw three distinct events underscoring a common issue: a U.S. Navy F/A-18 went down in the Red Sea, a passenger airliner crashed in Kazakhstan, and security officials warned of a potential threat to civil aviation in New Jersey. The common thread tying these events together is the difficulty of distinguishing friendly aircraft from hostile drones and the potential for accidents resulting in friendly-fire incidents.
The term 'deconfliction,' which previously received minimal attention, is now gaining significance due to its real-world impact.
Red Sea Incident
In the most recent event, U.S. Central Command referred to the F/A-18 shootdown as an 'apparent case of friendly fire.' The aircraft, which had just taken off from the USS Harry Truman, was struck down by the guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, one of Truman's escort ships.
Shortly before the incident, the same group of ships had been under attack from Houthi drones and a cruise missile, which they successfully intercepted. Typical safety protocols requiring target confirmation usually prevent such incidents, but they are not uncommon occurrences. Reports suggest that a second F/A-18 was also targeted, compelling it to perform evasive maneuvers when Gettysburg launched an SM-2 missile at it. The missile missed by approximately 100 feet (30 meters), narrowly avoiding disaster.
Flight operations from the Harry Truman were reportedly suspended until the cause of the incidents was determined. Distinguishing manned jets with twin jet engines from small drones may appear simple, but these incidents demonstrate how easily errors can occur.
Although no lives were lost in this instance, the damage to a $60m aircraft and the temporary suspension of flight operations from a carrier group underline the significant, unforeseen consequences of repeated drone attacks. Even if the drones are downed, they can still disrupt their targets.
Panther Strike
There is currently an investigation underway regarding the loss of the Azeri flight JS-8432. According to Azeri sources, the Embraer jet was hit by a Russian Pantsir (“Panther”) S-1 air defense system over Grozny before crashing. Russian authorities have yet to comment on the matter, awaiting a full investigation.
Friendly fire incidents have been a chronic problem for Russian aviation. Last month, Russian defenders accidentally shot down one of their own Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters. Earlier in October, a Su-25 attack aircraft also shot down another, while, earlier in the year, a Russian missile crew in Crimea accidentally downed one of their own Su-27 jets. These instances are not isolated cases.
The defenders are likely mistaking the aircraft for Ukrainian one-way attack drones, which have been effectively targeting Russian airbases, refineries, and other targets. Videos show the drones calmly flying over targets and colliding with them while gunfire echoes in the background, indicating that Russia's many long-range, radar-guided missile systems have proven ineffective against them. The pressure is on Russian air defense to bring down more drones, but launching more missiles will only increase friendly-fire incidents unless the underlying issues are addressed.
This morning, Russia temporarily closed five airports 'for operational safety reasons' during a Ukrainian drone attack. One of the airports closed was Grozny, the site of the JS-8432 incident. The measure is intended to prevent a repeat of this incident.
While no definitive evidence so far suggests that Ukrainian drones are mimicking commercial airliners, some Russian drones are fitted with radar reflectors to resemble larger aircraft, causing confusion. Transponders and other methods used to identify commercial airliners could be replicated by nefarious actors to aid drones in evading detection.
The drone that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in January was reportedly able to evade defenses by following the same flight path as a U.S. aircraft minutes earlier. In shared airspace, deconfliction becomes more challenging, and chaos inevitably favors the attackers.
New Jersey Incident
The situation in New Jersey is more complex. Initial reports of numerous unknown drones in the area have been muddled by various competing claims, including those suggesting the drones are actually commercial drones, satellites, or civil airliners. Others believe that government agencies are operating the drones or that extraterrestrial beings are controlling them. These drone sightings have caused widespread concern, from the White House down to concerned citizens.
President-elect Trump recommended on Truth Social that if the drones cannot be positively identified, they should be 'Shoot them down!!!' Others, including local politicians, have expressed frustration over the lack of action and the freedom that supposedly hostile reconnaissance drones appear to enjoy in New Jersey airspace.
The 'mystery drone' issue is not a recent phenomenon. In 2020, we reported on repeated incursions by large numbers of drones over U.S. nuclear power plants. Similar drone sightings have been reported over U.S. navy exercises and airbases. The scale of operations and the size and capability of some of the drones involved suggest that this is not merely the work of hobbyists.
Shooting the drones down may seem like a viable option, but the challenge of identification and the risk of friendly fire, as seen in the Red Sea and Grozny, must be considered. The problem is only expected to worsen.
Ukraine is escalating its output, aiming to unleash around 30,000 long-range assault drones in the forthcoming year. Many may follow their lead, replicating their accomplishments. Unlike conventional military tools such as hypersonic missiles, these drones can be manufactured by modest teams, even in makeshift garages, and boast a range of thousands of miles.
A potential solution may appear straightforward: extensive radar surveillance and sophisticated air traffic control systems to identify, trace, label, and monitor every aerial object. However, as the case in New Jersey demonstrates, drones can outmaneuver these systems and remain undetected. Furthermore, as the incident with Flight JS-8432 illustrates, any errors in attempts to intercept them can lead to catastrophic consequences.
In light of the New Jersey incident, the confusion over drone sightings has led to calls for action, with President-elect Trump suggesting, "Shoot them down!!!", highlighting the growing concern over unidentified drones in civilian airspace. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, plans to deploy around 30,000 long-range assault drones in the near future raise concerns about the escalating challenges of identifying and distinguishing friendly aircraft from hostile drones, as demonstrated by the shootdown of the JS-8342 passenger airliner in Grozny.
