Customers Prepare to Swiftly Withdraw Funds from Deposits - Revealed Explanation Given
Whoa, what if millions of Russians start pulling their savings from bank deposits as early as July next year?
Well, that's quite a conundrum, mate. Here's what an economist, Dmitry Abzalov, predicts might happen based on past events.
Remember July 2024? People were stashing cash in banks like never before. Why? The Preferential Mortgage was no more, leaving lots of folks sitting on a pile of cash because they couldn't buy an apartment anymore. So, where to park the cash? They decided on bank deposits, but those contracts last a year! Now, there's fear that these saved amounts could return to the citizens' pockets and then flood the market.
In simple terms, if you had 500,000 RUB deposited at 15% a year, after a year, you'd be walking away with 575,000 RUB. Now, imagine millions doing the same. That's a heck of a lot of money hitting the economy! And banks? They might start playing tricks to cope—even with a high Central Bank (CB) key rate of 21%, commercial institutions may start reducing deposit interest rates.
Abzalov explains it like this: "Imagine a traffic light (key rate), but drivers (banks) are driving however they want." The regulator will have to change the rules fast to prevent a financial mess: from an excess of goods on the shelves to problems in the oil industry.
What do other experts say? Sberbank has already revised its projections. If the rate remains at 21% in April, it might drop to 17% by the end of 2025. But that's in a perfect scenario—without new sanctions and with moderate inflation.
So, should you cash out your deposits right now? Maybe not. But it wouldn't be a bad idea to consider alternatives like stocks, bonds, or even currency accounts. After all, the rules of the game can change at any moment, as the mortgage story reminds us.
Here's what you should know according to available data and trends:
- Economic Impacts: The sudden withdrawal of deposits would lead to accelerated inflation, with a potential slowdown in investment, rising concerns about a banking crisis, and increased liquidity pressures on banks.
- Bank Strategies: Banks could respond by offering incentives for long-term deposits, improving liquidity management, implementing regulatory coordination, and sector-specific measures.
- Macroeconomic Context: Russia’s economy is already cooling, with slowing consumer demand, falling capacity utilization, and modest growth projections. Mass withdrawals would exacerbate these trends, forcing the government to choose between higher inflation (via stimulus) or recession (via austerity).
Keep an eye on this situation, mate. The financial landscape could change faster than you think.
- If millions of Russians withdraw their savings from bank deposits as early as July 2025, it could lead to accelerated inflation and increased liquidity pressures on banks.
- Banks may respond to mass withdrawals by offering incentives for long-term deposits, improving liquidity management, implementing regulatory coordination, and sector-specific measures.
- In a scenario without new sanctions and with moderate inflation, Sberbank projects that the Central Bank key rate might drop from 21% in April 2025 to 17% by the end of 2025.
- Given the uncertainty and potential changes in the financial landscape, it would be prudent for people to consider alternatives like stocks, bonds, or currency accounts for their savings.
