College Football Balance and Depth: SEC's Abundance, Big Ten's Elite Domination

College Football Balance and Hierarchy: Abundance in the SEC, Elite Dominance in the Big Ten

The nearly final College Football Playoff rankings were revealed on a Tuesday night, offering fans a clearer perspective of where the field of 12 is heading as the conference championship weekend approaches. Amidst heated debates surrounding the College Football Playoff selections, one topic has sparked passionate discussions among fans and experts: Should a three-loss SEC team like Alabama earn a spot over a two-loss ACC team such as Miami? CFP Selection Committee Chair, Manuel Warde, explained the decision as being based on win-loss records against top 25 teams. However, this debate stirs up broader discussions about a central issue in the sport—the varying levels of college football conference strength and balance.

Evaluating Conference Strength and Balance

To analyze the strength and balance of each conference presently, I utilized three all-encompassing college football rankings that rank teams from 1 to 134: CBS Sports Rankings, ESPN Football Power Index, and ESPN SP. The CBS Sports Rankings align closely with traditional college football polls like the AP and Coaches Poll for the top 25 teams, while the FPI and SP+ are designed to be forward-thinking, predictive rankings. Each FBS team was thus assigned three separate rankings, which were then averaged to create a composite ranking for each team. These composite rankings were then aggregated at the conference level.

The average of the composite rank for all the teams in a conference represents the strength of the conference, while the standard deviation of the composite rank for all the teams represents the balance in the conference. If the average is lower, the conference has stronger teams. Similarly, if the standard deviation is lower, the conference has more balance as the teams within the conference have similar strength. In this analysis, I focused specifically on Power 4 and Group of 5 conferences, excluding the Pac-12 and Independents from consideration.

Comparing the Conferences

Conferences demonstrated a broad spectrum of strength, with average composite rankings varying significantly from an SEC-best of 28 to a Conference USA-worst of 105. Balance within conferences was similarly diverse, with standard deviations of composite rankings ranging from an SEC-best of 21 to a Big Ten-worst of 35. As expected, the Power 4 conferences generally displayed above-average strength, with three of the four (SEC, ACC, and Big 12) also boasting better-than-average balance. The Big Ten exhibited strength, albeit with a lack of balance due to a significant divide between its elite programs and the rest of the conference. Among Group of 5 conferences, balance was a mixed bag, with some leagues showcasing uniformity while others revealed greater disparities in team performance.

SEC: Balance and Elite Teams

The SEC stands out as a conference that combines elite performance and internal balance. On average, SEC programs excel in the upper echelons of national rankings, including five teams with composite rankings in the top 10 (Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss). Parity has manifested itself on the field as these teams not only compete against each other but also lose to other .500 and below SEC teams, such as Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kentucky. This internal competition bolsters strength-of-schedule metrics, which often play a crucial role in keeping SEC teams in the Playoff conversation-even for those with three losses. However, this balance can have two sides. It can strengthen the conference's reputation but also justify the notion that victories within the SEC are more valuable and losses within the SEC are more forgivable compared to other conferences, a perspective that fuels ongoing discussions about the importance of conference depth versus individual team performance.

Big Ten: Top-Heavy Dominance

The Big Ten is a conference defined by its contradictions. At the summit, the conference is home to four teams with composite rankings in the top 10 (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana). However, beyond this elite tier, the majority of the conference struggles to keep pace. Iowa and Michigan State are the only other teams with composite rankings in the top 25. This disparity is apparent as the Big Ten's widest standard deviation among any conference highlights the considerable gap between its top teams and its bottom teams (Purdue has a composite rank of 122). This top-heaviness functions as both a strength and a weakness. The presence of multiple playoff-caliber teams ensures the Big Ten remains in the national spotlight, particularly as these elite programs frequently showcase their dominance on the field. Yet, the absence of depth across the conference decreases its credibility compared to a conference like the SEC, where balance runs throughout the rankings. If traditional powerhouses such as Michigan, USC, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Washington can recover next season, the Big Ten's depth might rival the SEC's, reshaping its reputation as a top-heavy league.

Big 12: Balance Without Elite Teams

The Big 12 is recognized for its even competition, leading to closely fought matches and unforeseeable results throughout the season. However, this equality has its drawbacks as it's unclear which teams will make it to the Big 12 Championship game until late in the year. Despite this, the Big 12 lacks top-tier, nationally dominant teams, with no team having a composite ranking better than 21 (Iowa State). This equals out the competition, making for an engaging schedule, but it also places the Big 12 in a vulnerable position in the College Football Playoff's expansion. With more opportunities for postseason berths, the Big 12 benefits from its internal competition. Nevertheless, the absence of top-ranked teams capable of battling for championships might lead to the Big 12 being perceived as a league of strong teams, lacking a true contender at a national level. The Big 12 might not even get a first-round bye in the playoffs this year, depending on results from the Big 12, ACC, and Mountain West Championship games.

ACC: Lacking Depth and Dignity

The ACC still grapples with its perceived shortage of depth. Controversially leaving undefeated ACC champion Florida State out of the College Football Playoff in favor of Alabama last year, and with the debate continuing this year between Alabama and Miami, who hold similar rankings, the ACC is struggling to prove itself as a consistent competitor. Currently, the only ACC team in the top 10 is newcomer SMU, with Miami, Clemson, and Louisville ranked 11, 16, and 20 respectively in the top 25. The downfall of Florida State and the perception of weakness among middle-tier ACC teams make it tough for the ACC to establish itself as a formidable conference. Miami, despite having a 2-loss record, faces criticism due to the ACC's weaker schedule, lacking in marquee matches to boost its resume. On the other hand, SEC teams like Alabama, despite losing, maintain a strong narrative of competing against tougher opposition within a more rigorous conference.

Group of 5: A Chasm Nobody Can Cross

The Group of 5 conferences are in a different league than the Power 4, as indicated by significant differences in composite team rankings. Even within the Group of 5, there are clear disparities, with some conferences boasting standout teams like Boise State (19), Tulane (27), UNLV (30), and Army (38). However, lacking the resources, recruitment pipelines, or strength-of-schedule metrics of the Power 4, even the top Group of 5 teams face a tough journey in gaining national acknowledgment. Conferences like the MAC and Conference USA, on the other hand, are defined by equality at the bottom, with no individual teams reaching national acclaim. While this results in competitive conference play and thrilling "MACtion" weekday night games, the gap between these tiers in college football remains as enormous as ever.

The Road to the Future

As college football continues to alter with expanded playoffs, conference realignment, and financial pressures, such as direct player compensation, due to a recent NCAA settlement, the difference between college football conferences could increase. The interplay of equality and strength will continue to shape the sport, affecting everything from playoff discussions to the sustainability of smaller programs. Ultimately, financial forces are driving college football towards a model emphasizing greater equality and scheduling tougher opponents.

The Big 12 Conference, known for its balanced competition, currently lacks a team with a composite ranking better than 21, indicating a lack of elite teams that can compete at a national level.
Amidst the ongoing debate about whether a three-loss SEC team like Alabama should earn a spot over a two-loss ACC team such as Miami, conference strength and balance are emerging as critical factors in the College Football Playoff selection process.
Excluding the Pac-12 and Independent conferences, the SEC stands out as a conference that combines elite performance and internal balance, boasting five teams with composite rankings in the top 10.
The Big Ten, with its top-heavy dominance, is home to four teams with composite rankings in the top 10, but the lack of depth across the conference decreases its credibility compared to conferences like the SEC, where balance runs throughout the rankings.
Despite the Group of 5 conferences demonstrating a wide range of balance and strength, the gap between these tiers and the Power 4 remains enormous, making it challenging for even top Group of 5 teams to gain national recognition.