Bitcoin price to soar to $110,000 according to Arthur Hayes before a potential correction
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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has made another daring prediction about Bitcoin. He firmly believes Bitcoin will soar to $110,000 before plummeting to $76,500, all due to potential changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
On March 24, Hayes revealed his thoughts on Bitcoin's future via X. He emphasized the easing concerns over inflation paving the way for policymakers to adjust focus. In his words, "Tariffs no longer hold weight because inflation is seen as temporary."
Market Expectations Tally with Hayes' Forecast
Although Hayes' prediction remains speculative, it mirrors growing market sentiments. Prediction market platform Polymarket reports a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will wrap up its quantitative tightening program by April 30. Analysts suggest that such a policy change could inject a significant amount of liquidity into financial markets, possibly sparking a Bitcoin rally.
Ending quantitative tightening has historically boosted investor confidence. This surge in optimism could reinforce Bitcoin's value, corroborating Hayes' view of a powerful rally before the expected decline.
Hayes' predictions are often closely observed, regardless of whether they were accurate or not. In September 2020, he modified his earlier predictions, admitting they had been short-sighted. "I reserve the 'right to change my mind as the situation evolves,'" he stated.
Nevertheless, his current forecast reflects the general opinion that Bitcoin might thrive under a more relaxed monetary policy. As the Federal Reserve's decisions become clearer, we'll see if Hayes' latest prediction proves true.
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Hayes' Bitcoin price prediction primarily stems from his anticipation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transformations, particularly the potential shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE). He suggests that the Fed will swap its current QT strategy, which involves shrinking liquidity by letting bonds mature with no reinvestment, for QE—increasing liquidity by purchasing bonds and injecting money into the financial system. This shift would create a wave of liquidity, pushing asset prices, including Bitcoin, higher.
Additionally, Hayes points out that upcoming U.S. Treasury bond buybacks would significantly enhance liquidity in the financial markets. This surge of liquidity is expected to fuel Bitcoin's price increase, potentially reaching $110,000 or even more[1][2].
Furthermore, Bitcoin's price is said to react solely to the market's expectations for future fiat currency supply. When the Fed switches to easing by purchasing bonds and expanding the money supply, Bitcoin gains appeal as a scarce, global digital store of value outside government control. This dynamic fuels the rise to $110,000 before the subsequent drop to $76,500 due to market adjustments or profit-taking[1][2].
Lastly, Hayes also takes into account global economic instability and Trump's tariffs as additional factors that may lead investors towards Bitcoin, amplifying the rally before the pullback[2][3].
In essence, Hayes' prediction is based on his expectations of the Federal Reserve launching quantitative easing through Treasury bond buybacks, resulting in a liquidity surge that initially sends Bitcoin soaring to around $110,000, followed by a correction or dip to roughly $76,500 as part of the expected natural price cycle under these macroeconomic influences[1][2][4].
- Arthur Hayes, in his latest prediction, anticipates Bitcoin to reach an unprecedented high of $110,000 due to potential changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically the transition from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing.
- Hayes believes that the end of quantitative tightening, if it injects significant liquidity into financial markets as history suggests, could spark a Bitcoin rally, reflecting his prediction of a powerful surge before the expected decline.
