Anticipated 1.5-fold surge in actual wages by the year 2028, as per Economic Development Ministry's predictions.
Wage Forecast in Russia by 2028
By the year 2028, Russian nominal wages are predicted to surge by 51.15%. According to a report by Vedomosti, this growth will catapult wages from the current 102,728 rubles in 2025 to an estimated 132,940 rubles in 2028. This forecast is based on scenario conditions outlined in the Ministry of Economic Development's social and economic development forecast.
In 2024, nominal wages soared by 18.3% against the previous year, reaching 87,952 rubles, as per Rosstat data. Over the subsequent five years, this growth is expected to reach a staggering 51%.
The baseline forecast indicates the following nominal wage growth rates:
- 102,728 rubles (an increase of 16.8% YoY) in 2025
- 11.4% YoY, resulting in 114,420 rubles in 2026
- 8.3%, amounting to 123,880 rubles in 2027
- 132,940 rubles (an increase of 7.3% YoY) in 2028
In real terms, adjusted for inflation, the increase will be more modest. The Ministry of Economic Development's baseline scenario expects real wage growth of 6.8% in 2025, followed by 5.7% in 2026, 4.1% in 2027, and 3.2% in 2028.
The conservative scenario, which anticipates escalation of trade wars and a significant slowdown of the global economy with a decrease in prices and demand for traditional Russian exports, suggests slight deviations from the baseline.
Worth noting, the previous forecast from September expected the average Russian wage to reach 119,296 rubles by 2027. The labor force is projected to expand from 76.2 million in 2025 to 76.5 million by 2028, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% throughout the forecast period, and the total number of unemployed citizens not exceeding 1.9 million annually.
On the downside, experts warn that the pace of wage growth will slow due to a lack of working capital at enterprises and savings behavior that constrains consumer demand. According to surveys, while 93% of Russian enterprises indexed employee wages in 2024, only 75% of organizations plan to increase remuneration in 2025.
A variety of factors could influence wage dynamics in Russia, including overall economic growth and recovery, labor market conditions (e.g., unemployment rate), inflation and monetary policy, investment climate, and global economic trends. Keep an eye on these factors to stay informed about the evolution of wages in Russia.
In the context of business and finance, the Russian wage forecast by 2028 predicts a significant 51.15% surge in nominal wages, reaching an estimated 132,940 rubles, according to the Ministry of Economic Development's social and economic development forecast. This growth is expected to be driven by various factors, including overall economic growth, labor market conditions, and investment climate.
