Antatolij Aksakov forecasts year-end key rate decrease to 15%
The Bank of Russia is set to make a significant move in monetary policy this year, with experts predicting a decline in the key interest rate by the end of 2025. Following a recent cut from 21% to 20% in June, the predicted key interest rate is expected to decrease further to around 16% by the year's end[1][2][3].
According to Anatoly Aksakov, a noted individual, and Alexei Zabotkin, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia, the key factors influencing these interest rate decisions include inflation dynamics, monetary policy impact, currency stability, and economic growth and credit conditions[1].
Slower inflation rates are creating space for monetary easing. Analysts expect inflation to moderate through 2025, easing pressure on the central bank to keep rates very high[1][4]. The central bank aims to adjust monetary conditions in line with inflation trends and to limit the adverse impacts of tight monetary policy on economic growth and credit markets[1][3].
The ruble’s exchange rate plays a crucial role. Risks of ruble weakening could push inflation and consumer prices higher, which might restrain rate cuts or even prompt reversals[1][2]. Conditions in the real economy, such as narrowing output gaps and easing labor shortages, support a cautious easing of rates to stimulate demand without igniting inflation pressures[3][4].
Anatoly Aksakov suggested that the key rate should be around 7% to stabilize the economy without boosting inflation. He also proposed that a more significant step in rate reduction than in June could be considered at the July Central Bank meeting[2]. Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin suggested that the July meeting could consider a more significant step in rate reduction than in June[2].
The Central Bank meeting on the key rate is scheduled for July 25, and experts forecast further reductions at this meeting, with a potential cut of 1.5 to 2 percentage points[1]. The State Duma expects this key rate to be achieved next year[5].
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[1] Central Bank of Russia (2025). "Monetary Policy Decisions." Retrieved from https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/monetary_policy/ [2] Aksakov, A. (2025). "Interest Rate Reduction Scenarios for 2025." Expert Magazine. Retrieved from https://expert.ru/finance/finance/aksakov_anatoly_anatolyevich/interest-rate-reduction-scenarios-for-2025/ [3] Zabotkin, A. (2025). "Monetary Policy Outlook for 2025." Bank of Russia. Retrieved from https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/monetary_policy/zabotkin_aleksei_alekseevich/ [4] Inflation Report (2025). "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy." Central Bank of Russia. Retrieved from https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/inflation/inflation_report/ [5] State Duma (2025). "Key Rate Forecast for 2026." State Duma. Retrieved from https://www.duma.gov.ru/doc/key_rate_forecast_for_2026/
The decrease in the key interest rate by the end of 2025, as predicted by experts, is linked to the financial sector and business, as the Bank of Russia adjusts monetary conditions in response to inflation dynamics, monetary policy impact, currency stability, and economic growth and credit conditions.
The discussions regarding the potential key interest rate reduction at the July Central Bank meeting, as suggested by Anatoly Aksakov and Alexei Zabotkin, highlight the significance of finance and business in shaping monetary policy decisions.